Assessing Macro-Financial Risks of Household Debt in China
IMF Working Papers, November 27, 2019
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Fei Han, Emilia M Jurzyk, Wei Guo, Yun He, Nadia Rendak
- Published: November 27, 2019
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513516073.001
Overview and scope
- Title: Assessing Macro-Financial Risks of Household Debt in China
- Authors: Fei Han, Emilia M Jurzyk, Wei Guo, Yun He, Nadia Rendak
- Publication: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2019/258
- Publication date: November 27, 2019
- Pages: 25
- Volume: 2019
- Issue: 258
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513516073.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2019258
- ISBN: 9781513516073
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Subject keywords: Consumption, Household consumption, Housing prices, Income, Income shocks, National accounts, Prices
- Additional keywords: Consumption, consumption growth, debt, DSTI ratio, GDP ratio, Global, Household consumption, household debt, household default, household indebtedness, Housing prices, Income, Income shocks, LTV ratio, WP
Key findings: macroeconomic and financial-stability implications
- Rapidly rising household debt in China could constrain future consumption growth and increase financial stability risks.
- Rising household indebtedness could boost consumption in the short term, while reducing it in the medium-to-long term.
- Stress tests of households’ debt repayment capacity indicate low-income households are most vulnerable to adverse income shocks, which could lead to significant defaults.
Methods and data
- The analysis uses household survey data to assess both macroeconomic and financial stability risks stemming from household debt dynamics.
Policy implications and recommendations
- Strengthen systemic risk assessment and macroprudential policies focused on the household sector.
- Improve the credit registry system.
- Establish a well-functioning personal insolvency framework.
Framing and limitations
- IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.
- The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Source: IMF Working Papers — "Assessing Macro-Financial Risks of Household Debt in China", November 27, 2019.
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