Political Costs of Tax-Based Consolidations
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Summary:
This paper studies the impact of tax-based consolidations on reelection outcomes. Using a granular database of tax-based consolidations for a panel of 10 OECD countries over the last 40 years, we find that tax reforms are politically costly but some reforms are costlier than others. Measures aimed primarily at reducing existing deficits and debt are costlier than tax consolidation policies for improving long-term growth prospects. Electoral costs are particularly high for broad-based indirect tax and corporate tax reforms. Voters tend to penalize governments less if tax consolidations are announced early in the government’s term or if the government has a strong political mandate. Favorable economic conditions increase public support for tax-based consolidations. Personal income tax reforms are electorally salient if the reforms are frontloaded, announced during recessions, and in less progressive tax systems.
Series:
Working Paper No. 19/298
Subject:
Base rates Budget deficits Business cycles Capital Capital income Capital stocks Corporate income taxes Debt Debt reduction Debt sustainability Development Drawbacks Economic conditions Economic indicators Economic policy Economic recession Economic reforms Economies Excise taxes Financial crises Fiscal adjustment Fiscal balance Fiscal consolidation Fiscal performance Fiscal policy Fringe benefits Government expenditures Gross domestic product Income taxes Interest Labor Legislation Liabilities Low income countries Migrations National income Personal income taxes Policy instruments Population Prediction theory Production Progressive taxation Public debt Revenue forecasting Revenue measures Revenues Stabilization measures Stocks Structural fiscal balance Tax bases Tax changes Tax collection Tax credits Tax increases Tax policy Tax rates Tax reductions Tax reforms Tax revenue Tax systems Taxation Taxes
English
Publication Date:
December 27, 2019
ISBN/ISSN:
9781513521534/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2019298
Price:
$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)
Format:
Paper
Pages:
31
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