Improving Crop Yields in Sub-Saharan Africa - What Does the East African Data Say

IMF Working Papers, June 12, 2020

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Recent micro level data from East Africa is used to benchmark aggregate data and assess the role of agricultural inputs in explaining variation in crop yields on smallholding plots.
Fertilizer, improved seeds, protection against erosion and pesticides improve crop yields in Rwanda and Ethiopia, but not Uganda, possibly associated with lack of use there.
With all positive yield determinants in place, wheat and maize yields could increase fourfold.
The data hints at the negative effect of climate change on yields and the benefits of accompanying measures to mitigate its adverse impact (access to finance and protection against erosion).
The adverse effect of crop damage on yields varies between 12/13 percent (Rwanda, Uganda) to 36 percent (Ethiopia).
Protection against erosion and investment financing mitigate these adverse effects considerably.

Yield improvement potential: wheat and maize yields could increase fourfold with all positive determinants in place.
Adverse effect of crop damage on yields:
- Rwanda: 12/13 percent
- Uganda: 12/13 percent
- Ethiopia: 36 percent

Positive determinants observed (Rwanda and Ethiopia): fertilizer, improved seeds, protection against erosion, pesticides.
Lack of observed improvement in Uganda possibly associated with lack of use of these inputs.
Complementary measures that enhance resilience and yield outcomes: access to finance and protection against erosion.

Scale up use of proven agricultural inputs where underused (fertilizer, improved seeds, pesticides, erosion protection) to unlock yield gains, particularly for wheat and maize.
Promote access to investment financing to mitigate the adverse impacts of crop damage and climate change on yields.
Implement and expand protection against erosion as a direct means to reduce yield losses and strengthen resilience to climate change.
Target country-specific strategies recognizing variation in input use and efficacy across Rwanda, Ethiopia, and Uganda.

Source: Improving Crop Yields in Sub-Saharan Africa - What Does the East African Data Say (IMF Working Paper No. 2020/095).