Exiting from Lockdowns: Early Evidence from Reopenings in Europe
IMF Working Papers, October 21, 2020
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Exiting from Lockdowns: Early Evidence from Reopenings in Europe
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Authors: Jeffrey R. Franks, Bertrand Gruss, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Manasa Patnam, Sebastian Weber
- Published: October 21, 2020
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513559704.001
Novel database and heterogeneity in reopening strategies
- Introduces a novel daily database of sectoral reopening measures in Europe during the first-wave.
- Documents that country plans differed significantly in terms of timing, pace, and sequencing of sectoral reopening measures.
- Emphasizes heterogeneity across countries and sectors in reopening choices and timing.
Mobility recovery versus infection outcomes
- Reopenings led to a recovery in mobility—a proxy for economic activity—but at the cost of somewhat higher infections.
- The paper characterizes this as a trade-off between restoring mobility and the risk of increased infections.
Key empirical findings on infection dynamics
- The increase in COVID-19 infections after reopening appears less severe in fatality rates.
- A given reopening step is associated with a worse reinfection outcome in countries that:
- started reopening earlier on the infection curve, or
- opened all sectors at a fast pace in a relatively short time.
- Opening measures tend to have an amplification effect on subsequent cases when a large fraction of the economy is already open.
- The amplification effect appears heterogeneous across sectors.
Research scope and classification
- Subject areas: COVID-19, Education, Expenditure, Health, Population and demographics, Public expenditure review.
- Keywords include: COVID-19, effect of reopening, Europe, infection amplification risk, infection curve, infection dynamics, infection evolution, infection situation, infection variable, infection-death curve, Lockdowns, outcome variable, Pandemics, Public expenditure review, reopening policy, WP.
IMF Working Paper No. 2020/218, October 21, 2020; authors: Jeffrey R. Franks, Bertrand Gruss, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Manasa Patnam, Sebastian Weber.
Content in this bundle
- Working Paper