Energy, Efficiency Gains and Economic Development: When Will Global Energy Demand Saturate?

Author/Editor:

Christian Bogmans ; Lama Kiyasseh ; Akito Matsumoto ; Andrea Pescatori

Publication Date:

November 20, 2020

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

Not anytime soon. Using a novel dataset covering 127 countries and spanning two centuries, we find evidence for an energy Kuznets curve, with an initial decline of energy demand at low levels of per capita income followed by stages of acceleration and then saturation at high-income levels. Historical trends in energy efficiency have reduced energy demand, globally, by about 1.2 percent per year and have, thus, helped bring forward a plateau in energy demand for high income countries. At middle incomes energy and income move in lockstep. The decline in the manufacturing share of value added, globally, accounted for about 0.2 percentage points of the energy efficiency gains. At the country level, the decline (rise) of the manufacturing sector has reduced (increased) US (China) energy demand by 4.1 (10.7) percent between 1990 and 2017.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2020/253

Frequency:

regular

English

Publication Date:

November 20, 2020

ISBN/ISSN:

9781513561240/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2020253

Format:

Paper

Pages:

43

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