Post-Covid-19 Recovery and Resilience: Leveraging Reforms for Growth and Inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa

IMF Working Papers, February 19, 2021

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Covid-19 has exacerbated economic and social vulnerabilities across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
There is a risk that growth could be lower for longer, with a setback to development.
Post-pandemic reforms could boost per capita growth by an additional 0.3-1.3 percentage points, relative to the 1.9 percent average since 2010.
Such reform-driven growth would reduce per capita income doubling time from 37 years to about 22 years.
Low-income countries stand to gain the most from reforms.
The largest gains come from governance, product markets, and factor accumulation.
These reforms can be implemented in the post-pandemic environment characterized by weaker social and distributional outcomes.

Additional per capita growth from reforms: 0.3-1.3 percentage points.
Baseline per capita growth reference: 1.9 percent average since 2010.
Per capita income doubling time:
- Baseline: 37 years.
- With reforms: about 22 years.

Governance reforms: identified as one of the largest contributors to gains in per capita growth.
Product market reforms: a major source of potential growth improvements.
Factor accumulation: emphasis on policies that enhance labor and capital accumulation.

With constrained scope for fiscal and monetary stimuli, structural reforms are especially important for recovery and resilience.
Reforms should be designed and implemented recognizing weaker social and distributional outcomes in the post-pandemic environment.
Priority should be given to reforms that deliver both growth and inclusion, with particular focus on low-income countries in SSA.