Energy Transition Metals

Author/Editor:

Lukas Boer ; Andrea Pescatori ; Martin Stuermer

Publication Date:

October 12, 2021

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2021/243

Frequency:

regular

English

Publication Date:

October 12, 2021

ISBN/ISSN:

9781513599373/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2021243

Pages:

41

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