Nowcasting and Near-Term Forecasting Cambodia’s Economy
IMF Working Papers, July 12, 2024
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Dyna Heng, Fei Han, Sovanney Chey, Raksmey Uch, Dy Kuchsa, Pholla Phork
- Published: July 12, 2024
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400280931.001
Overview
- Purpose: Assess the current state of Cambodia’s economy and forecast the economic outlook in the next few quarters to inform policymakers.
- Core contribution: Presents a suite of models with an integrated approach to nowcasting and near-term forecasting for Cambodia, demonstrating use of high-frequency data in a context with limited and lagged official data.
Methodology and Model Components
- Historical quarterly GDP estimation:
- Estimate historical quarterly GDP using information extracted from high-frequency indicators to construct a quarterly nowcasting model.
- High-frequency current-activity forecasting:
- Forecast current economic activities using high-frequency data such as credit, export, tourist arrival, foreign reserves, and trading partner’s GDP.
- Inflation forecasting:
- Present inflation forecasting models tailored for Cambodia.
- Vector autoregression (VAR) forecasting:
- Present a vector autoregression model to forecast Cambodia’s GDP in the next few quarters using global forecasts of China’s and US’s economy as well as oil and rice price.
Key Findings and Analytical Insights
- Demonstrates that high-frequency data sets can be utilized effectively to assess current economic activities in countries with limited and lagged official data.
- Integrates multiple data sources (credit, export, tourist arrival, foreign reserves, trading partner GDP, oil and rice prices) to improve short-term tracking and forecasting of Cambodia’s GDP and inflation.
Relevance for Policy and Practitioners
- Provides tools for policymakers to:
- Assess current-quarter economic conditions in near real time.
- Produce short-horizon forecasts of GDP and inflation to inform policy decisions.
- Emphasizes the value of incorporating global conditions (China and US GDP forecasts) and commodity prices (oil and rice) into domestic short-term forecasting frameworks.
Scope and Metadata
- Authors: Dyna Heng, Fei Han, Sovanney Chey, Raksmey Uch, Dy Kuchsa, Pholla Phork
- Date: July 12, 2024
- Length: 46 pages
- Series: IMF Working Paper No. 2024/147
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400280931.001
- Subjects: Credit, Econometric analysis, Economic forecasting, Exports, Inflation, International trade, Money, Prices, Vector autoregression
- Keywords: Cambodia, Cambodia's GDP, Credit, Developing countries, Exports, Global, high-frequency data set, Inflation, inflation forecasting model, near-term forecasting Cambodia's economy, Nowcasting, Nowcasting GDP, Vector autoregression
IMF Working Paper No. 2024/147 (July 12, 2024) by Dyna Heng, Fei Han, Sovanney Chey, Raksmey Uch, Dy Kuchsa, and Pholla Phork.
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