Climate Change

Since 2016, Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reforms have improved governance, business regulations, capital markets, the labor market, and the external sector, narrowing structural gaps with frontier economies and improving economic performance. This paper summarizes progress, estimates the output impact of the reforms, notes challenges, and highlights future priorities for continued growth and diversification.

Economic activity remains strong despite global uncertainty. Favorable medium-term growth prospects are underpinned by Paraguay’s macroeconomic stability and the ongoing implementation of comprehensive structural reforms. Inflation remains under control, public debt at prudent levels, and foreign reserves above adequacy benchmarks. Fiscal consolidation is progressing in line with the authorities’ plans and adherence to the Fiscal Responsibility Law is expected to be restored in 2026 for the first time since 2018. Risks to the outlook are balanced: Adverse weather shocks remain a significant downside risk, while higher-than-expected FDI inflows owing to the country’s comparative advantages present upside potential.

This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidations in sub-Saharan Africa using a newly constructed narrative dataset of discretionary fiscal policy actions for 14 countries over 1990–2024. The dataset, documented in Abdel-Latif et. al. (2025), identifies fiscal measures undertaken for reasons unrelated to current or prospective economic conditions, providing a credible basis for estimating fiscal multipliers. The results show that a fiscal consolidation of 1 percent of GDP reduces output by about 0.54 percent after two years, a larger effect than what is found using alternative identification methods. Fiscal consolidations also reduce imports, improve the current account balance, and lead to a depreciation of the real effective exchange rate. Our findings suggest that the composition of adjustment matters: spending cuts have larger multipliers than tax increases. Moreover, fiscal consolidations produce larger output losses when implemented during downturns and when development aid inflows are low. These findings are robust to several checks, including alternative estimation strategies. Overall, the findings highlight the critical role of timing and composition in designing effective fiscal adjustment strategies across sub-Saharan Africa.

This paper introduces the first narrative-based dataset on fiscal consolidations for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Drawing on staff reports from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during the period 1990-2024 and using an approach assisted by artificial intelligence (AI), the dataset systematically identifies fiscal consolidation actions motivated by long-term considerations (rather than cyclical conditions), such as reducing an inherited budget deficit, ensuring long-term public debt sustainability and improving economic efficiency. By focusing exclusively on measures exogenous to the business cycle, the dataset provides a more precise identification of fiscal consolidation actions for the empirical analysis of the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in SSA.

This technical assistance report summarizes the findings from the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department’s September 2025 mission to Phnom Penh, aimed at renewing engagement with the General Department of Customs and Excise (GDCE) and shaping the FY2026 capacity development workplan. Against the backdrop of Cambodia’s moderating economic outlook, with growth expected to ease to 4.8 percent in 2025, the GDCE is pursuing an ambitious modernization agenda aligned with its 2024–2028 Customs Reform and Modernization Strategy. Discussions with senior officials identified several priority areas essential to strengthening revenue mobilization, trade facilitation, and compliance. Key FY2026 priorities include revising the Customs Law to align with international standards, enhancing eCommerce regulation and digital clearance systems, improving Special Economic Zone (SEZ) oversight, and strengthening anti fraud and investigation capabilities to combat trade based money laundering. Additional needs include updating post clearance audit practices, improving risk management approaches, and undertaking a mid cycle review of the GDCE’s reform strategy. While GDCE plans to independently advance its ASYCUDA and broader IT modernization agenda, it seeks technical assistance in several other high impact areas. Development partners including JICA, ADB, and the World Bank continue to play a central role in supporting Cambodia’s customs and revenue initiatives. Strong coordination among partners remains critical to avoiding duplication and ensuring a coherent, strategically aligned support package. The report outlines proposed FY2026 activities and underscores GDCE’s commitment to confirming priorities and finalizing planning steps to advance its modernization objectives.

The IMF conducted a repeat Tax Administration Diagnostic Assessment Tool (TADAT) evaluation of Armenia's tax administration system from May 12 to May 27, 2025. The assessment aimed to establish an updated baseline for tax administration performance, identify areas for potential reform, and evaluate achievements since an assessment in 2016. Key findings highlighted strengths in electronic registration, filing, and payment facilities, and good management of IT and data risks. Areas for development include auditing practices and debt management.