Training Program Course: Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAFx)

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The course introduces participants to a semi-structural macroeconomic model often used as a core of FPAS (Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems) at the central banks.
The course shows how to implement the key equations of a canonical quarterly projection model (QPM) in a macroeconomic modeling software.
The course uses detailed country data highlighting an inflation targeting central bank, for hands-on historical filtration, forecasting, and calibration exercises.
Topic: Monetary and External Sector Policies
Speaker: Andrew Berg

The course covers two main technical aspects:
- introduction to a canonical New Keynesian model structure and its key properties; and
- implementation of the QPM in Matlab/Octave and the application of IRIS toolbox for solving and maintaining the QPM, as well as forecasting with the QPM.
Emphasis on hands-on exercises: historical filtration, forecasting, and calibration using country data that highlights an inflation targeting central bank.

Target Audience:
- All government officials are welcome to register.
- The course is particularly well-suited for officials in central banks that are in the early stages of introducing Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems (FPAS) with IMF assistance.
Qualifications:
- Participants are expected to have a background in undergraduate macroeconomics, statistics, and econometrics.
- Participants are provided with guidance on how to access Matlab or Octave software.

Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:

Explain the building blocks and key model equations of a canonical semi-structural QPM.
Implement and calibrate a simple QPM using a specialized software for macroeconomic modelling.
Identify necessary codes for data transformation, filtration, forecasts, and evaluation of the QPM properties and model-based outputs.
Produce a baseline forecast and alternative scenarios using the QPM.

The course introduces participants to quarterly projection macroeconomic models developed as a core of FPAS (Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems) and how to implement the key canonical quarterly projection model (QPM) equations in a macroeconomic modeling software.