Revenue Forecasting and Analysis
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- Canonical URL
- Revenue Forecasting and Analysis
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Bibliographic details
- Published: July 19, 2025
Upcoming offerings
| Start date | End date | Location | Delivery Method | Session No. | Primary & (Interpretation) language | Apply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | April 15, 2027 | Course conducted online | [[Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods) | OL 26.226 | Spanish | [[Apply online](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.197E)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.226S) by April 1, 2027 |
| May 1, 2026 | April 15, 2027 | Course conducted online | [[Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods) | OL 26.197 | English | [[Apply online](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.197E)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.226S) by April 1, 2027 |
| May 1, 2026 | April 15, 2027 | Course conducted online | [[Online Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods)](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods) | OL 26.198 | French | [[Apply online](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.197E)](https://www-ins.imf.org/TAS/signon.aspx?pkey=OL26.226S) by April 1, 2027 |
Course overview
- The Training Program Course, Revenue Forecasting and Analysis (RFAx), is an online course that focuses on the technical and institutional aspects of revenue forecasting and tax policy analysis.
- The course provides an overview of the quantitative methods required to forecast and evaluate the revenue implications of changes in major taxes: personal income taxes, corporate income taxes, value added taxes, excise taxes, and international trade taxes.
- The course emphasizes the necessity of establishing a strong institutional framework to support the revenue forecasting process.
- The course builds on both conceptual and practical approaches and employs hands-on activities, which include quizzes and quantitative exercises with real fiscal data.
Target audience and qualifications
- Target audience:
- Government officials working in ministries of finance or in revenue administrations who are charged with conducting revenue forecasts and/or assessing the revenue or distributional impact of tax policy changes.
- Qualifications:
- Designed for participants who have basic to intermediate understanding of tax policy.
- Participants are expected to have a degree in economics or tax accountancy (ideally with some background in econometrics).
- Participants should be proficient in Microsoft Excel.
Technical content and methods taught
- Quantitative methods covered:
- Macro-based models to forecast tax revenue.
- Input-output models to analyze indirect taxes.
- Micro-simulation techniques to analyze direct taxes and distributional implications.
- Data and institutional topics:
- Identification of data requirements for each method of revenue forecasting.
- Good practices relating to the institutional framework that supports the revenue forecasting process.
- Model evaluation:
- Recognition of the strengths and limitations of different models.
Course objectives (learning outcomes)
Upon completion of the course, participants should be able to:
- Describe the role of revenue forecasting in the budget-making process.
- Identify good practices relating to the institutional framework that supports the revenue forecasting process.
- Identify data requirements for each method of revenue forecasting.
- Apply macro-based models to forecast tax revenue.
- Apply input-output models and micro-simulation techniques to analyze the revenue and distributional implications from indirect and direct taxes.
- Recognize the strengths and limitations of different models.