Tax Revenue Forecasting and Analysis

Source details

The course is an introductory course designed for public sector staff interested in the theory and practice of revenue forecasting and tax policy analysis.
The course offers hands-on learning to build foundational knowledge on different quantitative models and techniques used to forecast revenues and undertake tax policy analysis.
The course does not presume the audience is familiar with forecasting concepts but does require a basic understanding of statistical concepts.

Target audience: Government officials and others working in the Ministry of Finance, Strategic Planning Ministries and Central bank, who are dealing with the revenue forecasting and related expenditure planning functions, including those who will potentially be handling such roles in future assignments.
Qualifications: The participant should have at least five years' professional experience in a revenue or revenue-related expenditure planning function.
Pre-requisites: Participants should be nominated by the designated sponsoring agency in the Ministry or other Government organization.
Sponsoring organization responsibility: The sponsoring organization should ensure that the nominated officer possesses a basic understanding of statistical concepts.

Analyze fundamental principles and trends in tax revenue analysis.
Explain the key features of an effective institutional framework for revenue forecasting.
Identify data requirements and recognize potential data issues.
Recognize the strengths and limitations of different forecasting methods.
Use the adequate model(s) to quantify the impact of tax policy changes, including input-output tables and micro-simulation models.

The course is intended to be a hands-on practical workshop.
The course will feature an introductory short test to appraise participants' basic knowledge on the forecasting.
Throughout the course, participants will undertake practical exercises during each of the different sessions comprising the course.
At the end of the course, participants will undertake a final test.

Quantitative models and techniques covered include a range of forecasting methods and tax policy analysis tools.
Specific modelling tools referenced: input-output tables and micro-simulation models.
Emphasis on data: identification of data requirements and recognition of potential data issues.
Emphasis on methodological judgment: recognizing strengths and limitations of different forecasting methods.