Training Program

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Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting

Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF)

Apply online by January 4, 2026 Deadline extended

Session No.: CT 26.02

Location: Shenzhen, China

Date: March 9-20, 2026 (2 weeks)

Delivery Method: In-person Training

Primary Language: English

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Target Audience

Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making and staff producing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models. The course targets primarily central bank officials from Monetary Policy Department and/or Research/Modeling Department, although representatives from other departments or other agencies (e.g., Ministry of Finance/Economy) are also encouraged to apply.

Qualifications

Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience. Participants are expected to be comfortable using quantitative software such as Matlab, although specific knowledge of these is not required. It is recommended that applicants have completed the online Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting course on edX.org.

Course Description

This course provides rigorous training on the use of Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting. It emphasizes the analysis of monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks. Participants are provided with the tools necessary to develop or extend the canonical model to fit their own monetary policy framework and selected features of their country's economy. Country case studies are used to reinforce participants' understanding and showcase the production of real-time baseline forecasts and alternative scenarios.

Course Objectives

Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to: 

  • Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the shocks this economy may face. 
  • Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using small semi-structural models. 
  • Use the semi-structural gap model to develop consistent medium-term projections for key macro variables, e.g., output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate. 
  • Identify risks to the baseline forecast and build alternative scenarios that assume certain risks may materialize. 
  • Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis and forecasting using their own country data when they return home.

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