Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF)
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Bibliographic details
- Session: CT 26.02
- Location: Shenzhen, China
- Dates: March 9-20, 2026 (2 weeks)
- Delivery method: In-person Training
- Primary language: English
- Status: Deadline passed
Program logistics and audience
- Session No.: CT 26.02
- Location: Shenzhen, China
- Date: March 9-20, 2026 (2 weeks)
- Delivery Method: In-person Training
- Primary Language: English
- Application status: Deadline passed
- Target Audience:
- Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making and staff producing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models.
- Primarily central bank officials from Monetary Policy Department and/or Research/Modeling Department.
- Representatives from other departments or other agencies (e.g., Ministry of Finance/Economy) are also encouraged to apply.
Qualifications and prerequisites
- Expected background:
- Advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience.
- Comfortable using quantitative software such as Matlab (specific knowledge not required).
- Recommended prior learning:
- Completion of the online Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting course on edX.org is recommended.
Course description and focus
- The course provides rigorous training on the use of Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting.
- Emphasis areas:
- Analysis of monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks.
- Tools to develop or extend the canonical model to fit a country’s monetary policy framework and selected features of the country’s economy.
- Pedagogical approach:
- Country case studies to reinforce understanding.
- Production of real-time baseline forecasts and alternative scenarios.
Course objectives and competencies
Upon completion of the course, participants should be able to:
- Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the shocks this economy may face.
- Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using small semi-structural models.
- Use the semi-structural gap model to develop consistent medium-term projections for key macro variables, e.g., output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.
- Identify risks to the baseline forecast and build alternative scenarios that assume certain risks may materialize.
- Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis and forecasting using their own country data when they return home.
Additional training note
- The IMF offers online training to government officials and the public; interested participants are directed to Learn more for current offerings.