Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF)

Source details

Target audience: Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making and staff doing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models.
Qualifications:
- Expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience.
- Expected to be comfortable using quantitative software such as Matlab/Octave, although specific knowledge of these is not required.

The course provides rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting.
Emphasis on analysis of monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks.
Participants receive tools to develop or extend the canonical model to fit their own monetary policy framework and selected features of their country's economy.
Country case studies are used to reinforce understanding and to compare and assess a variety of possible experiences.

The course will run in a blended format, consisting of two compulsory parts.
Selected participants will first complete on their own time three mandatory short online learning segments and consultation hours with lecturers during October 12 - 23, 2026.
In-person portion of the course will be held at JVI in Vienna during November 2 - 13, 2026.
Completing both the online and in-person parts of the course is required for successful completion of the course in order to receive the course certificate.

Upon completion of the course, participants should be able to:

Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the shocks this economy may face.
Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using small semi-structural models.
Use the small semi-structural model to develop consistent medium-term projections for key macro variables, e.g., output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.
Identify risks to the baseline forecast and build alternative scenarios that assume certain risks may materialize.
Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis and forecasting using their own country data when they return home.