Press Release No. 99/28

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) today approved a 17-month Stand-By credit for Mexico equivalent to SDR 3,103 million (about US$4,123 million), to support the government's 1999-2000 economic program. There will be seven disbursements under the Stand-By credit. The first three will be SDR 517.2 million (about US$687 million) each. The first is available immediately, the second on meeting end-June 1999 performance criteria, and the third upon the first program review scheduled to be completed by December 1999 and meeting end-September 1999 performance criteria. The next four disbursements of SDR 387.9 million each (about US$515 million) will become available based on meeting the performance criteria for end-December 1999, end-March 2000, end-June 2000, and end-September 2000, and subject to reviews scheduled to be completed by March and June 2000, respectively.

In commenting on the Executive Board's discussion of the request by Mexico, Stanley Fischer, First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF made the following statement:

"Directors commended the authorities for their pursuit of sound economic policies and structural reforms, which have restored confidence and set the stage for sustainable growth. As a result of these policies, and the authorities' prompt response to external shocks, the resilience of the Mexican economy has increased. Directors noted in particular the role that the floating exchange rate had played in absorbing shocks and ensuring that major external imbalances did not develop. Directors supported the program's access to Fund resources, considering this an appropriate preventive strategy to maintain market confidence. The view was expressed that should the international environment improve, the authorities should treat this arrangement as precautionary.

"Directors cautioned that the Mexican economy remains vulnerable to shocks. The continued fragility of the banking system was a major weakness, and Directors urged the authorities to accord this area top priority and to accelerate the pace of banking reform. They underscored the importance of enforcing strict adherence to existing financial regulations and upgrading the financial system's legal, regulatory, and supervisory framework consistent with the Basle core principles.

"Directors considered that the fiscal stance was appropriately tight, and based on a conservative oil price assumption, as well as measures that will increase non-oil revenues by about 2 percentage points of GDP. Directors praised the authorities for protecting social expenditures, while lowering noninterest expenditures to their lowest level relative to GDP in this decade. In this regard and pointing to the still high incidence of poverty, Directors considered it important to strengthen the social safety net and the delivery of social services, with due regard to budgetary constraints. They particularly urged the authorities to follow through on their own plans to restrain public expenditures through the presidential elections and to build a consensus for a tax reform package that could be submitted for congressional consideration. Directors also encouraged greater fiscal transparency, particularly related to banking restructuring costs.

"Directors also broadly supported the stance of monetary policy, within the context of the existing floating exchange rate regime. They recognized that the demonstrated commitment to inflation reduction was engendering confidence, as evidenced by the steady decline in inflation expectations, and encouraged continuation of policies aimed at further reducing inflation.

"Directors agreed that, as capital market access improved, the external current account deficit could well widen, and be financed mostly by foreign direct investment. In this regard, they stressed the importance of monitoring private sector access to international capital markets, and making full use of the early warning debt monitoring system that has been established. They noted that the authorities' prudent debt management strategy should provide a manageable medium-term external debt profile," Fischer said.

ANNEX

Program Summary

Mexico's economy expanded strongly from mid-1995 as a result of a pursuit of sound economic policies and structural reforms, which have reestablished credibility and set the stage for sustainable growth over the medium term. These policies have also increased the resilience of the Mexican economy to external shocks, as reflected by the limited impact of recent international financial market turbulence. The government's reaction to the shocks through prompt adjustments in fiscal and monetary policies, in the context of a flexible exchange rate regime, gave market participants confidence that major external imbalances would not develop. In order to further reduce vulnerability to adverse shocks, the Mexican authorities are continuing their efforts to restructure the banking system, which needs to play a key role in supporting economic growth.

The medium-term strategy seeks to consolidate the gains made in 1995-98 and set the economy on a sustainable growth path that would expand employment opportunities and reduce poverty in the context of low inflation. The economic program1 aims to reduce inflation to 13% during 1999 from 19% during 1998, and to 10% during 2000. Real GDP growth is expected to decline to 3% in 1999 reflecting, in part, reduced access to international capital markets, but is set to recover to 5% in 2000 as conditions improve. Correspondingly, the external current account deficit is projected to decline to 2.2% of GDP in 1999 and then to increase to 3.1% of GDP in 2000 as the pace of investment picks up. The overall public sector deficit is programmed, based on aconservative oil price assumption, at 1¼% of GDP in 1999. Fiscal measures already in place are expected to raise non-oil revenue by ½% of GDP, while noninterest expenditure is budgeted to fall to its lowest level relative to GDP this decade without affecting social expenditure.

The authorities also intend to continue carrying out structural reforms aimed at bolstering market confidence in the Mexican economy and consolidating access to international capital markets on increasingly favorable terms. The privatization program, in its final phase, includes the divestment of infrastructural facilities (ports, airports, railroads, satellites, natural gas distribution, and electricity generation). As mentioned above, the authorities are also taking a number of actions to improve the financial health of the banking system and are committed to continue to enforcing strict adherence to existing regulation, in addition to the upgrading of the legal regulatory, and supervisory framework of the financial system consistent with the Basle core principles.

Despite a decline in public sector noninterest expenditures of 2% of GDP in 1998, social sector expenditure as a percent of GDP increased to 9% in 1998 from 8.6% in 1997. The authorities have also undertaken to improve the efficiency of social expenditure through better targeting, such as the linkage of family income transfers to compliance with preventive health care guidelines, vaccination schedules, and primary school attendance.

Mexico is an original member of the IMF; its current quota2 is SDR 2,585.8 million (about
US$3,436 million). Its outstanding use of IMF financing currently totals SDR 4,308 million (about US$5,724 million).

1 Details on the program will be available on the IMF's website: http://www.imf.org.external/np/loi/mempub.asp..

2 A member's quota in the IMF determines, in particular, the amount of its subscription, its voting weight, its access to IMF financing, and its allocation of SDS.

Mexico: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators                             Prel. Proj. Proj.     1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000                   (Annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated)                   Domestic economy               Real GDP -6.2 5.1 6.8 4.8 3.0 5.0   Real GDP per capita -8.0 3.3 -5.0 3.0 1.2 3.2   Gross domestic investment (in percent of GDP) 20.0 23.2 26.0 26.2 25.9 27.2   Gross national savings (in percent of GDP) 19.4 22.7 24.2 22.5 23.6 24.1   Consumer prices (end of year) 52.0 27.7 15.7 18.6 13.0 10.0                   External sector               Exports, f.o.b. 32.0 22.7 13.1 1.1 6.5 9.6   Imports, f.o.b. -21.4 27.4 24.6 12.5 2.2 12.5   External current account (in percent of GDP) -0.6 -0.5 -1.8 -3.8 -2.2 -3.1   Change in net reserves (in billions of U.S. dollars, increase -) 2.9 -6.3 -13.5 -3.7 0.0 -1.0   Nonfinancial public sector external debt (in percent of GDP) 35.2 29.5 22.0 21.7 21.2 20.4   Nonfinancial public sector external debt service               (in percent of exports of goods and services) 26.5 38.7 35.9 21.3 20.5 21.2   Real effective exchange rate (CPI based, average, depreciation -) -33.2 13.0 17.9 1.9 ... ...                   Nonfinancial public sector               Revenue (in real terms) -6.1 6.0 5.9 -5.3 4.3 3.4   Expenditure (in real terms) -6.7 4.3 10.9 -3.7 5.3 2.4   Primary balance (in percent of GDP) 4.0 3.9 2.0 1.6 2.3 1.9   Overall balance (in percent of GDP) 0.2 0.3 -1.0 -1.3 -1.3 -1.0                   Money and credit               Monetary base (in real terms) -22.8 -1.6 12.0 1.8 4.5 7.1   Broad money (in real terms) -11.2 -1.7 5.5 3.5 4.5 7.1   Average adjusted credit to private sector (in real terms) 1/ -35.0 -7.9 -7.3 -7.3 0.9 2.7                   Sources: National Institute of Statistics and Geography; Bank of Mexico; Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit; and IMF staff estimates.                               1/ Including assets sold to FOBAPROA from 1996.