IMF Staff Country Reports

This Selected Issues paper focuses on potential growth and demographic dividend in Philippines. Output and employment in the Philippines were severely impacted by the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. While the Philippines recovered strongly after the pandemic, there is some evidence of scarring in output, and labor productivity remains below pre-pandemic trends. A comparison between the Philippines and peer countries along structural areas key to supporting higher growth can inform reform efforts to support higher growth. Strengthening anti-corruption efforts, while enhancing the legal system, regulatory quality, and improving the rule of law would support business certainty. At a structural level, the Philippines is on the cusp of a demographic transition but must close important structural gaps to take advantage of this potential dividend and boost growth. Under current policy settings, potential growth projections are estimated to be between 6.0–6.3 percent in the medium term. An upside scenario, which assumes ambitious and well-sequenced structural reforms, shows that growth could reach 7.0–7.5 percent over a longer time horizon.