Fiscal Monitor

As the global economy faces increasing fiscal challenges, multilateral surveillance of fiscal developments has become an important part of the IMF’s surveillance responsibilities. The Fiscal Monitor series provides an overview of latest public finance developments, updates the medium-term fiscal outlook, and assesses fiscal implications of policies relevant to the global economy.

The Fiscal Monitor is prepared twice a year by the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department. Its projections are based on the same database used for the World Economic Outlook (WEO) and the Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR). The fiscal projections for individual countries have been prepared by IMF desk economists, and, in line with the WEO guidelines.

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2024

Fiscal Monitor October 2024: Putting a Lid on Public Debt

October 15, 2024

Global public debt is elevated. It is projected to exceed US$100 trillion in 2024 and will rise over the medium term. This chapter shows that risks to the debt outlook are heavily tilted to the upside. In a severely adverse scenario, global debt is estimated to be nearly 20 percentage points of GDP higher three years ahead than the baseline projection, reaching 115 percent of GDP. Much larger fiscal adjustments than currently planned are required to stabilize (or reduce) debt with high probability. Now is an opportune time for rebuilding fiscal buffers and delaying is costly. Rebuilding fiscal buffers in a growth-friendly manner and strengthening fiscal governance is essential to ensure sustainable public finances and financial stability.

Putting a Lid on Public Debt

October 15, 2024

Global public debt is elevated. It is projected to exceed US$100 trillion in 2024 and will rise over the medium term. This chapter shows that risks to the debt outlook are heavily tilted to the upside. In a severely adverse scenario, global debt is estimated to be nearly 20 percentage points of GDP higher three years ahead than the baseline projection, reaching 115 percent of GDP. Much larger fiscal adjustments than currently planned are required to stabilize (or reduce) debt with high probability. Now is an opportune time for rebuilding fiscal buffers and delaying is costly. Rebuilding fiscal buffers in a growth-friendly manner and strengthening fiscal governance is essential to ensure sustainable public finances and financial stability.

Fiscal Policy in the Great Election Year

April 17, 2024

The chapter highlights heightened risks to public finances given potential distortions from a record number of elections this year in the context of elevated public debt, still-high interest rates, and slowing growth prospects. Decisive fiscal consolidation efforts are needed to safeguard sustainable finances, while protecting the most vulnerable.

2023

Climate Crossroads Fiscal Policies in a Warming World

October 2, 2023

The report takes stock of mitigation policies across countries and presents the trilemma facing policymakers of balancing between achieving climate goals, debt sustainability, and political feasibility. New insights from the report shows that the only way to achieve these joint goals is through a carefully calibrated mix of revenue and spending-based policies. Carbon pricing is a necessary instrument and should be part of the policy mix. However, it is not sufficient and should be complemented by policies to address market failures and catalyze private financing and investment in low-carbon technologies. Robust fiscal transfers are needed to protect vulnerable households, workers, and communities during the green transition.

Fiscal Monitor April 2023

April 12, 2023

Inflation affects public finances and the distribution of well-being across households. Targeted fiscal policy can help lower inflation and protect vulnerable households from the cost-of-living crisis.

2022

Fiscal Monitor, October 2022: Helping People Bounce Back

October 9, 2022

Governments face increasingly difficult trade-offs in tackling the spikes in food and energy prices when policy buffers are largely exhausted after two years of pandemic. They should prioritize protecting vulnerable groups through targeted support while keeping a tight fiscal stance to help reduce inflation. Building fiscal buffers in normal times would allow governments to respond swiftly and flexibly during adversities. Several fiscal tools, such as job-retention schemes, have proven useful to preserve jobs and income for workers. Social safety nets should be made more readily scalable and better targeted, leveraging digital technologies. Exceptional support to firms should be reserved for severe situations and requires sound fiscal risk management.

Fiscal Monitor, April 2022

April 6, 2022

Amidst pandemic legacies and the war, fiscal policy needs to address the humanitarian crisis and economic disruption while being flexible and ready to adjust as the outlook becomes clearer.

2021

Fiscal Monitor, October 2021

October 7, 2021

Fiscal Monitor Chapter 1 - This report explains how committing to sound public finances, with a credible set of rules and institutions to guide fiscal policy, can help governments address challenges as they try to recover from the pandemic.

Fiscal Monitor, April 2021

April 1, 2021

The April 2021 edition of the Fiscal Monitor focuses on tailoring fiscal responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and adopting policies to reduce inequality and gaps in access to quality public services.

Fiscal Monitor Update, January 2021

January 20, 2021

Flexible government actions are necessary to ensure swift and extensive vaccine rollouts, protect the most vulnerable households and otherwise viable firms, and foster a durable and inclusive recovery. This Fiscal Monitor Update analyzes measures to date and the scope for more, depending on country circumstances, and tracing the implications for fiscal debts and deficits.

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