Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Shifting Winds, New Policy Challenges, October 2011 -- Table of Contents
Western Hemisphere, October 5, 2011
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Bibliographic details
- Published: October 5, 2011
- Series: Western Hemisphere
Executive summary and regional outlook
- Despite the recent deterioration in the global economic environment, projections for the region involve only a modest worsening of the outlook (October 2011).
- Severe downside risks are highlighted:
- A sharp slowdown in Asia, for example in response to a recession in advanced economies, could impact commodity prices, with negative effects on Latin American commodity exporters.
- Global monetary policy likely to remain accommodative; capital flows could exacerbate overheating and amplify vulnerabilities in emerging markets.
- Countries with strong real linkages to the United States face a somewhat weaker outlook and should give priority to reducing public debt.
- Much of the Caribbean is recovering from a prolonged recession, but the outlook remains constrained by high public debt and weak tourism flows.
- Policies can play an important role in mitigating the economic impact of terms-of-trade shocks; underscores the need to rebuild policy buffers.
Global, U.S., and Canadian outlook and policy challenges
- Global outlook: slowing growth with dominant downside risks; "Policy Options: Rebalancing Demand" is a focal policy discussion.
- United States: characterized as "A Tough Balancing Act"; includes "U.S. Policy Options".
- Canada: "A Slowing Recovery"; includes "Canada Policy Options".
- Implications for Latin America and the Caribbean are considered in the context of U.S. and global developments.
Outlook and policy issues for Latin America and the Caribbean
- Overview and Policy Challenges sections organize regional heterogeneity:
- South America: Financial Integrated Commodity Exporters—Guarding against Overheating.
- South America: Less Financially Integrated Commodity Exporters—Avoiding Procyclicality.
- Mexico and Central America: More Headwinds to Growth.
- The Caribbean: Repairing Sovereign and Financial Balance Sheets.
- Labor market analysis:
- "How Tight Are Labor Markets in Inflation-Targeting Countries?"
- "Estimating the Nonaccelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment" and "Policy Implications".
- Macroprudential policy assessment:
- "Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policies" with Cross-Country Analysis and Sectoral Evidence.
- Fiscal challenges:
- "Fiscal Consolidation Challenges in Tourism-Intensive Economies".
Commodity price cycles and terms-of-trade shocks
- Chapter 3: "Commodity Price Cycles: The Perils of Mismanaging the Boom" examines:
- Historical perspective on commodity prices.
- Degree of commodity dependence: "How Commodity Dependent is Latin America?"
- Determinants of economic performance during terms-of-trade busts via Cross-Sectional and Panel approaches.
- "Key Takeaways and Policy Implications" focused on managing booms and busts.
Analytical annexes and data
- Annex materials include:
- Additional Figures.
- Cross-Sectional Approach: List of Explanatory and Control Variables.
- Western Hemisphere: Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 2005–11.
- Western Hemisphere: Main Economic Indicators, October 2011.
- Latin America and the Caribbean: Main Fiscal Indicators, October 2011.
- References.
- New Publications from the Western Hemisphere Department, January 2010–August 2011.
Boxes and topics highlighted
- Boxes cover a range of targeted issues, including:
- U.S. Housing and Labor Markets: Headwinds to Recovery.
- U.S. Financial Exposure to Europe.
- Budget Institutions for U.S. Fiscal Consolidation.
- Latin America: Banking Sector Spillovers from the European Crisis.
- Latin America: Fiscal Adjustment with Social Cohesion.
- Rule-Based Fiscal Frameworks for Latin America.
- Challenges for Financial Regulation and Supervision in Latin America.
- Recent Sovereign Debt Restructurings in Latin America and the Caribbean.
- U.S. Monetary Policy and Commodity Prices.
- Latin America’s Commodity Dependence and Export Diversification: Selected Cases.
- Export- or Import-Induced Terms-of-Trade Shocks: Are They Different?
- The Cost of Mismanaging Abundance.
Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere - Shifting Winds, New Policy Challenges, October 2011 -- Table of Contents
Content in this bundle
- Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere — October 2011
- wreo1011s
- Wreo1011c1pdf
- _wreo1011c2pdf
- Wreo1011c3pdf
- Latin America and the Caribbean: Main Fiscal Indicators
- Executive Summary
- Main Economic Indicators, October 2011
- Latin America and the Caribbean: Main Fiscal Indicators
- New Publications from the Western Hemisphere Department, January 2010–August 2011
- Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere
- _wreo1011prefacepdf
- References — Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere
References
- Press Release: IMF Sees Latin America Facing a Range of Challenges from Global Crisis
- Western Hemisphere: Regional Economic Outlooks Archive
- Regional Economic Outlooks
- IMF Regional Reports
- World Economic Outlook Archives
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