The Uzbek Growth Puzzle
September 1, 1998
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Summary
After the break-up of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan’s output fell less than in any other former Soviet Republic, and growth turned positive in 1996/97. Given the country’s hesitant and idiosyncratic approach to reforms, this record has suprised many observers. This paper first shows that a standard panel model of growth in transition systematically underpredicts Uzbek growth from 1992-1996, confirming the view that Uzbekistan’s performance consitutes a puzzle. It then attempts to resolve the puzzle by appropriately extending the model. The main result is that Uzbekistan’s output performance was driven by a combination of low initial industrialization, its cotton production, and its self-sufficiency in energy.
Subject: Agricultural commodities, Capital spending, Commodities, Environment, Expenditure, Macrostructural analysis, Natural resources, Public investment spending, Structural reforms
Keywords: Agricultural commodities, Baltics, Capital spending, Central Asia, Cotton, Eastern Europe, Energy, Growth, Natural resources, Output, Public Investment, Public investment spending, Structural reforms, Transition, Uzbek experience, Uzbek growth experience, Uzbek growth puzzle, Uzbek output path, Uzbek transition experience, Uzbekistan, Uzbekistan country dummy variable, WP
Pages:
36
Volume:
1998
DOI:
Issue:
133
Series:
Working Paper No. 1998/133
Stock No:
WPIEA1331998
ISBN:
9781451855463
ISSN:
1018-5941
