Northern Triangle Undocumented Migration to the United States

IMF Working Papers, January 27, 2023

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Northern Triangle Undocumented Migration to the United States

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Alina Carare, Catherine Koh, Yorbol Yakhshilikov
• Published: January 27, 2023
• Series: IMF Working Papers
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400232039.001

Overview

• Undocumented migration from the Northern Triangle countries (El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras) to the United States has been steadily increasing over the past 30 years, accelerating at times.
• The paper investigates factors explaining this trend by estimating an investment decision model, using annual data over 1990-2019.

Methodology

• Empirical approach: estimation of an investment decision model.
• Data frequency and span: annual data over 1990-2019.

Key findings

• Economic labor market conditions play a major role:
  • Real wages and unemployment rates, especially in the U.S., are important determinants of undocumented migration.
• Living-conditions drivers in origin countries also explain migration:
  • Natural disasters.
  • Coffee production.
  • Higher temperatures.
  • Homicide rates.
• Border enforcement effects:
  • Tighter border enforcement measures act as a deterrent.
  • Perceptions regarding changes in enforcement measures can at times drive up undocumented migration.

Policy implications and recommendations

• Policies that address the root causes of migration in origin countries are essential.
• U.S. assistance in addressing these root causes is important to reduce the difference between perceived benefits and expected costs of migration.

Source: IMF Working Paper. Authors: Alina Carare, Catherine Koh, Yorbol Yakhshilikov. January 27, 2023.

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