Measuring Global Trade Policy Activity
IMF Working Papers, October 24, 2025
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Samuele Centorrino, Antonia Diakantoni, Alexander Keck, Michele Ruta, Monika Sztajerowska, Yuting Wei
- Published: October 24, 2025
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229028356.001
Overview
- Introduces the Trade Policy Activity (TPA) Index, a novel indicator measuring evolving global trade policy dynamics since the Global Financial Crisis.
- TPA Index is designed to monitor global trade policy developments in real time and contributes to the trade policy measurement literature.
- Authors: Samuele Centorrino, Antonia Diakantoni, Alexander Keck, Michele Ruta, Monika Sztajerowska, Yuting Wei.
- Publication date: October 24, 2025.
- Format length: Pages: 39.
Methodology
- Uses a Dynamic Factor Model applied to comprehensive trade policy data covering 197 countries and territories.
- Employs MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) regressions with high-frequency data to develop nowcasting capabilities for trade policy activity.
- Analytical focus includes factor models and econometric analysis to capture both structural and cyclical components of trade policy measures.
Key findings
- Documents a structural shift around 2019 with a substantial expansion in the use of trade policies.
- Identifies cyclical episodes of heightened trade policy activity.
- Reveals interconnections between different types of trade policy measures.
- Identifies systematic differences in trade policy deployment among groups of economies.
Nowcasting and real-time monitoring
- MIDAS regressions enable nowcasting capabilities for trade policy activity.
- Nowcasting aims at real-time identification of potential policy shifts using high-frequency indicators.
Subject coverage and keywords
- Subject: COVID-19, Econometric analysis, Economic forecasting, Exports, Factor models, Health, International trade, Tariffs, Taxes, Trade policy, Trade tensions.
- Keywords: COVID-19, Dynamic Factor Models, Exports, Factor models, Global, IMF working papers, Nowcasting, private sector job creation, Tariffs, TPA index, Trade Policy, trade policy development, Trade tensions, trade-policy activity, views of the IMF.
Content in this bundle
- Working Paper