Cutting Emissions, Securing Energy: A Macroeconomic Assessment for COP30
IMF Working Papers, November 21, 2025
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- Cutting Emissions, Securing Energy: A Macroeconomic Assessment for COP30
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Simon Black, Dora Benedek, Ian W.H. Parry, Nate Vernon-Lin, Sunalika Singh
- Published: November 21, 2025
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229031455.001
Summary findings
- Climate change poses significant macroeconomic challenges through direct climate impacts and the energy transition required to address them.
- The world is not on track to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping global warming “well below 2°C”, and ideally to 1.5°C:
- Temperatures are likely to pass 1.5°C this decade.
- Temperatures would exceed 2°C by 2050, even if national targets are met.
- Current national emissions targets aim for a 7 percent cut compared to the 30 to 45 percent needed by 2035.
- Limiting the “overshoot” in peak temperatures by cutting global emissions of greenhouse gases would reduce climate risks.
- Achieving emissions targets implies drastic changes in the energy system and requires ensuring security of energy supply for macroeconomic stability and growth.
Modeling approach and options
- The paper uses in-house models to:
- Illustrate options for closing emissions gaps.
- Assess impacts of aligning emissions with temperature goals.
- Explore strategies to minimize climate risks while pursuing mitigation.
Emissions gaps and temperature goals
- National targets shortfall:
- Stated ambition: 7 percent cut (no further qualifiers in source).
- Needed to meet temperature-consistent pathways: 30 to 45 percent by 2035.
- Temperature trajectory based on current policy and targets:
- 1.5°C likely to be passed this decade.
- >2°C by 2050 even if national targets are met.
Energy system implications and energy security
- Closing the emissions gap requires drastic changes in the energy system (phraseology preserved).
- Ensuring security of energy supply is critical for:
- Macroeconomic stability.
- Economic growth.
- Policy design must balance rapid mitigation with energy supply reliability and grid stability (terms preserved from subject keywords).
Macroeconomic policy implications and recommendations
- Effective macroeconomic policies are necessary to:
- Manage the transition in ways that preserve growth and stability.
- Support energy security while implementing mitigation measures.
- The analysis highlights trade-offs between ambition, costs, and energy-system transformations (analysis phrasing preserved).
Content in this bundle
- Working Paper