The Spillover Effects of the Global Crisison Economic Activity in Mena Emerging Market Countries: An Analysis Using the Financial Stress Index

January 1, 2010

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

The estimated spillover of the global crisis to emerging market (EM) economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) indicates that nearly two-thirds of the increased financial stress in MENA EM countries after the Lehman shock is attributable to direct or indirect spillovers of financial stress in advanced economies. Moreover, the estimated models suggest that the increased financial stress and slowdown in economic activity in advanced economies can explain about half of the drop in real GDP growth in MENA EM countries after the Lehman shock.

Subject: Econometric analysis, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Estimation techniques, Financial crises, Financial markets, Financial sector policy and analysis, Financial soundness indicators, Spillovers

Keywords: advanced economy, countries in the Middle East and North Africa, economic activity, Emerging and frontier financial markets, emerging market, emerging market country, Estimation techniques, Financial soundness indicators, financial stress, GCC country, Global, growth projection, real GDP growth, Spillover, Spillovers, WP

Pages:
21
Volume:
2010
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451961867.001
Issue:
008
Series:
Working Paper No. 2010/008
Stock No:
WPIEA2010008
ISBN:
9781451961867
ISSN:
1018-5941

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