Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, “Ins,” “Outs,” and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework
December 1, 1999
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Summary
This paper presents a methodology for calculating bilateral equilibrium exchange rates for a panel of currencies in a way that guarantees global consistency. The methodology has three parts: a theoretical model that encompasses the balance of payments and the Balassa-Samuelson approaches to real exchange rate determination; an unobserved components decomposition in a cointegration framework that identifies a time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate; and an algebraic transformation that extracts bilateral equilibrium nominal rates. The results uncover that, by the start of Stage III of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the euro was significantly undervalued against the dollar and the pound, but overvalued against the yen. The paper also shows that the four major EMU currencies locked their parities with the euro at a rate close to equilibrium.
Subject: Currencies, Exchange rates, External position, Foreign assets, Foreign exchange, Money, Purchasing power parity, Real exchange rates
Keywords: Currencies, deviations from equilibrium, equilibrium exchange rate, Equilibrium Exchange Rates, excess demand, exchange rate, Exchange rates, Foreign assets, Global, Panel Cointegration, Purchasing power parity, Real exchange rates, Swedish krona, WP, yen rate
Pages:
43
Volume:
1999
DOI:
Issue:
175
Series:
Working Paper No. 1999/175
Stock No:
WPIEA1751999
ISBN:
9781451858730
ISSN:
1018-5941
