A Model-Based Analysis of Spillovers: The Case of Poland and the Euro Area
Electronic Access:
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Summary:
This paper studies economic and financial spillovers from the euro area to Poland in a two-country semi-structural model. The model incorporates various channels of macrofinancial linkages and cross-border spillovers. We parameterize the model through an extensive calibration process, and provide a wide range of model properties and evaluation exercises. Simulation results suggest a prominent role of foreign demand shocks (euro area and global) in driving Poland’s output, inflation and interest rate dynamics, particularly in recent years. Our model also has the capability for medium-term conditional forecasting and policy analysis.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2014/186
Subject:
Exchange rates Financial services Foreign exchange Inflation Inflation targeting Monetary policy Prices Real exchange rates Real interest rates
English
Publication Date:
October 17, 2014
ISBN/ISSN:
9781498381819/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2014186
Pages:
50
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