IMF Staff Country Reports

The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Bolivia's growth momentum moderated in 2023, to 2.5 percent, from declining natural gas production, less public investment, and financial market turmoil. Growth is anticipated to decelerate to 1.6 percent in 2024, holding at around 2.2-2.3 percent in the medium term under the continuation of the current policies. Inflation is forecast to reach 4.5 percent in 2024, stabilizing around 4 percent thereafter. The outlook is however predicated on significantly improved access to external financing, without which the risk of disorderly fiscal and/or exchange rate adjustment is elevated. Near-term growth is expected to remain constrained by elevated uncertainty and unfavorable financial conditions. Structural reforms to incentivize foreign investment, improve capital allocation, eliminate credit quotas and interest rate ceilings, expand and diversify the export base, strengthen fiscal and central bank governance, and revamp the regulatory framework will be crucial to eventually guide the economy to a higher medium-term growth path.