Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2009 -- Table of Contents

Middle East and Central Asia

Regional Economic Outlook:Middle East and Central Asia

October 2009

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MENAP Oil Exporters and Oil Importers (Chapters 1-2 & Appendix).
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The Caucasus and Central Asia (Chapter 3 & Appendix)
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The global economic crisis has taken a toll on the Middle East and Central Asia region, but appropriate policy responses have helped mitigate the impact. Looking ahead, the region’s oil exporters are expected to benefit from rising oil prices as the world economy begins to pull out of an unparalleled post-World War II recession. Oil importers, however, are likely to continue to face continued headwinds that may delay an uptake in growth. Where feasible, countries should continue to support domestic demand to lessen the impact of the crisis on the poor while maintaining a focus on debt sustainability. For the region’s low-income countries, higher donor support will be needed to maintain economic development. Across the region, governments should further strengthen financial systems and be careful not to lose momentum on structural reforms. Published biannually in May and October.

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Preface
Assumptions and Conventions
Country and Regional Groupings
Highlights

1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Weathering the Global Storm

2. MENAP Oil Importers: Slow Recovery Ahead

3. The Caucasus and Central Asia: In the Midst of the Crisis

Appendix: Fiscal Policy: How Much Space Do Countries Have?

Statistical Appendix

Boxes
1.1	Islamic and Conventional Banks in the GCC: How Did They Fare?
1.2	Oil Sector Prospects: Global Implications
2.1	Spillovers from the Global Crisis
3.1	Economic Prospects in Major Partner Countries and the CIS
3.2	The Macroeconomic Consequences of Declining Remittances and the Response of the International Community

Figures
1.1	Global Crisis Strikes the Oil Sector
1.2	Large Stimulus in Two Countries
1.3	Current Account Balance Falls
1.4	Buildup of External Reserves, Drawn Down During Crisis; Changes in International Reserves
1.5	Private Sector Credit Decelerated
1.6	Central Banks Extend Credit
1.7	Financing Conditions Are Improving
1.8	Signs of Bottoming Out
1.9	Change in Stock Market Indices: Large Drop, Partial Recovery
1.10	Valuation Ratios Signal Optimism Toward a Recovery
1.11	Recent Increases in Reserves
1.12	Banks’ Funding Sources Are Recovering, but Not Necessarily Their Lending Activities
1.13	No Sign of Inflationary Pressures Yet
1.14	External and Fiscal Balances Should Improve As Global Economy Recovers
2.1	Exports Rebounding
2.2	Stocks Outshining MSCI Benchmark
2.3	Economic Growth Slowed During the Crisis and Is Likely to Remain Relatively Subdued
2.4	Lower Receipts from Abroad
2.5	Little Advanced Manufacturing . . .
2.6	. . . Has Provided Protection from the Downturn . . .
2.7	. . . but at a Long-Term Cost
2.8	Trade Patterns Differ
2.9	Low Issuance of External Bonds . . .
2.10	. . . and Little Cross-Border Bank Lending
2.11	Procyclical Fiscal Impulses
2.12	High Debt Burden
2.13	Attenuating Price Pressures
2.14	Currencies Mostly Appreciating
2.15	Consumption Will Drive Growth
2.16	Lower Investment Is Behind Narrowing of External Current Account Deficits
3.1	Modest Recovery Is in the Offing for 2010
3.2	CCA Remittance Inflows Are Declining Sharply
3.3	Exports Have Contracted Sharply in 2009 . . .
3.4	. . . but Imports Have Also Fallen
3.5	External Balances Are Weakening
3.6	Fiscal Policy Is Expansionary
3.7	Debt Levels Are Rising . . .
3.8	. . . and Grant Support Is Declining
3.9	Inflation Is Declining Rapidly
3.10	Most CCA Currencies Have Depreciated Against the U.S. Dollar but Not the Russian Ruble
3.11	Losses in Competitiveness Are Reversing
3.12	Nonperforming Loans Are Rising
3.13	Credit Growth Slows
3.14	Rising Lending Rates Could Hold Back Investment

Tables
1.1	Basic Economic Indicators
1.2	Drivers of Change in Credit Growth to the Private Sector During the Crisis
1.3	MENAP Oil Exporters: Policy Responses to the Crisis
1.4	Financial Soundness Indicators in Selected Countries, end-2008
2.1	MENAP Oil Importers: Policy Responses to the Crisis
2.2	Banking Indicators Show Signs of Improvement and Some Challenges
3.1	CCA Energy Importers Are Hard Hit
3.2	CCA: Policy Reponses to the Crisis

Statistical Appendix Tables
1	Real GDP Growth
2	Nominal GDP
3	Oil and Non-Oil Real GDP Growth
4	Crude Oil Production and Exports
5	Consumer Price Inflation
6	Broad Money Growth
7	Central Government Fiscal Balance
8	Central Government Total Revenue, Excluding Grants
9	Oil Exporters: Central Government Non-Oil Fiscal Balance
10	Oil Exporters: Central Government Non-Oil Revenue
11	Central Government Total Expenditure and Net Lending
12	Total Government Debt
13	Exports of Goods and Services
14	Imports of Goods and Services
15	Current Account Balance (Billions of U.S. dollars)
16	Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP)
17	Gross Official Reserves
18	Total Gross External Debt

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Contents

Preface
Assumptions and Conventions
Country and Regional Groupings
Highlights

1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Weathering the Global Storm

2. MENAP Oil Importers: Slow Recovery Ahead

3. The Caucasus and Central Asia: In the Midst of the Crisis

Appendix: Fiscal Policy: How Much Space Do Countries Have?

Statistical Appendix

Boxes
1.1	Islamic and Conventional Banks in the GCC: How Did They Fare?
1.2	Oil Sector Prospects: Global Implications
2.1	Spillovers from the Global Crisis
3.1	Economic Prospects in Major Partner Countries and the CIS
3.2	The Macroeconomic Consequences of Declining Remittances and the Response of the International Community

Figures
1.1	Global Crisis Strikes the Oil Sector
1.2	Large Stimulus in Two Countries
1.3	Current Account Balance Falls
1.4	Buildup of External Reserves, Drawn Down During Crisis; Changes in International Reserves
1.5	Private Sector Credit Decelerated
1.6	Central Banks Extend Credit
1.7	Financing Conditions Are Improving
1.8	Signs of Bottoming Out
1.9	Change in Stock Market Indices: Large Drop, Partial Recovery
1.10	Valuation Ratios Signal Optimism Toward a Recovery
1.11	Recent Increases in Reserves
1.12	Banks’ Funding Sources Are Recovering, but Not Necessarily Their Lending Activities
1.13	No Sign of Inflationary Pressures Yet
1.14	External and Fiscal Balances Should Improve As Global Economy Recovers
2.1	Exports Rebounding
2.2	Stocks Outshining MSCI Benchmark
2.3	Economic Growth Slowed During the Crisis and Is Likely to Remain Relatively Subdued
2.4	Lower Receipts from Abroad
2.5	Little Advanced Manufacturing . . .
2.6	. . . Has Provided Protection from the Downturn . . .
2.7	. . . but at a Long-Term Cost
2.8	Trade Patterns Differ
2.9	Low Issuance of External Bonds . . .
2.10	. . . and Little Cross-Border Bank Lending
2.11	Procyclical Fiscal Impulses
2.12	High Debt Burden
2.13	Attenuating Price Pressures
2.14	Currencies Mostly Appreciating
2.15	Consumption Will Drive Growth
2.16	Lower Investment Is Behind Narrowing of External Current Account Deficits
3.1	Modest Recovery Is in the Offing for 2010
3.2	CCA Remittance Inflows Are Declining Sharply
3.3	Exports Have Contracted Sharply in 2009 . . .
3.4	. . . but Imports Have Also Fallen
3.5	External Balances Are Weakening
3.6	Fiscal Policy Is Expansionary
3.7	Debt Levels Are Rising . . .
3.8	. . . and Grant Support Is Declining
3.9	Inflation Is Declining Rapidly
3.10	Most CCA Currencies Have Depreciated Against the U.S. Dollar but Not the Russian Ruble
3.11	Losses in Competitiveness Are Reversing
3.12	Nonperforming Loans Are Rising
3.13	Credit Growth Slows
3.14	Rising Lending Rates Could Hold Back Investment

Tables
1.1	Basic Economic Indicators
1.2	Drivers of Change in Credit Growth to the Private Sector During the Crisis
1.3	MENAP Oil Exporters: Policy Responses to the Crisis
1.4	Financial Soundness Indicators in Selected Countries, end-2008
2.1	MENAP Oil Importers: Policy Responses to the Crisis
2.2	Banking Indicators Show Signs of Improvement and Some Challenges
3.1	CCA Energy Importers Are Hard Hit
3.2	CCA: Policy Reponses to the Crisis

Statistical Appendix Tables
1	Real GDP Growth
2	Nominal GDP
3	Oil and Non-Oil Real GDP Growth
4	Crude Oil Production and Exports
5	Consumer Price Inflation
6	Broad Money Growth
7	Central Government Fiscal Balance
8	Central Government Total Revenue, Excluding Grants
9	Oil Exporters: Central Government Non-Oil Fiscal Balance
10	Oil Exporters: Central Government Non-Oil Revenue
11	Central Government Total Expenditure and Net Lending
12	Total Government Debt
13	Exports of Goods and Services
14	Imports of Goods and Services
15	Current Account Balance (Billions of U.S. dollars)
16	Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP)
17	Gross Official Reserves
18	Total Gross External Debt

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Middle East and Central Asia

Middle East and Central Asia