| Preface |
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| Executive Summary |
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| 1. |
Global, U.S., and Canadian Outlook |
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1.1. The Global Outlook—A Dual Speed Expansion Proceeds with Increasing Risks |
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Advanced Economies |
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Emerging Market Economies |
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1.2. United States—Ongoing Recovery with Downside Risks |
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What Kinds of Policies Are Needed? |
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1.3. Canada—Recovery Gathers Strength |
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1.4. Implications for the Latin American and Caribbean Region |
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| 2. |
Outlook and Policy Issues for Latin America and the Caribbean |
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2.1. Overview |
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2.2. Policy Challenges |
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South America—Managing Double Tailwinds |
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South America—The Less Financially Integrated Commodity Exporters |
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Mexico and Central America—Rebuilding Policy Buffers |
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The Caribbean—Recovery Beginning Amid High Debt |
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2.3. Dealing with the Oil and Food Price Shock |
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Impact of Global Commodity Price Shocks on Inflation |
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Monetary Policy in the Face of Commodity Price Shocks |
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Social Policies and Commodity Price Shocks: Protecting the Poor |
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2.4. Credit Markets and Asset Prices—Are Bubbly Conditions Taking Hold? |
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Bank Credit Growth |
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Corporate Indebtedness |
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Equity Prices |
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Housing Prices |
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2.5. Capital Inflows—Guarding Against the Reversal of Favorable Global Conditions |
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Annex 2.1. Estimating Inflation Pass-Throughs |
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| 3. |
Foreign Exchange Market Intervention: How Good a Defense Against Appreciation Winds? |
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3.1. Introduction |
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3.2. Key Trends |
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3.3. Modalities of Intervention |
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3.4. Searching for Effects of Intervention: New Evidence |
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An Econometric Panel Approach |
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Triggers for Intervention |
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Effects of Intervention |
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Effectiveness––Event Analysis of Regime Shifts |
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3.5. Quasi-Fiscal Costs of FXI |
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3.6. Takeaways and Policy Considerations |
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Annex 3.1. Foreign Exchange Intervention and International Reserves: Data Availability |
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Annex 3.2. Methodological Strategy for the Panel Approach |
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Annex 3.3. Confidence Intervals for the Synthetic Currency |
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Western Hemisphere: Main Economic Indicators |
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Latin America and the Caribbean: Main Fiscal Indicators |
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References |
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New Publications from the Western Hemisphere Department, July 2009–April 2011 |
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Boxes |
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1.1. Long-Term Outlook for the U.S. Federal Government Finances |
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1.2. Household Deleveraging in the United States |
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1.3. Canada’s Financial System Resilience: What Can Others Learn? |
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2.1. Changing Export Patterns in Latin America and the Caribbean |
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2.2. An Update on Macroprudential Policies |
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2.3. Haiti: Economic Developments since the January 2010 Earthquake |
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2.4. Caribbean Offshore Financial Centers: Opportunities and Challenges |
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2.5. The Information Value of Core Inflation |
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2.6. Stock Market Developments in the Region: The Role of Commodities |
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3.1. Actual Intervention and Changes in Gross International Reserves |
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3.2. Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules in Practice: Selected Latin American Experiences |
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3.3. Instruments for Foreign Exchange Purchases |
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3.4.Channels of Transmission of Foreign Exchange Intervention to the Exchange Rate |
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3.5. Overview of Recent Empirical Studies on Foreign Exchange Intervention in Latin America |