Sub-Saharan Africa
Sustaining Growth amid Global Uncertainty
April 2012
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©2012 International Monetary Fund
Sub-Saharan Africa continues to record strong economic growth, despite the weaker global economic environment. Regional output rose by 5 percent in 2011, with growth set to increase slightly in 2012, helped by still-strong commodity prices, new resource exploitation, and the improved domestic conditions that have underpinned several years of solid trend growth in the region’s low-income countries. But there is variation in performance across the region, with output in middle-income countries tracking more closely the global slowdown and with some sub-regions adversely affected, at least temporarily, by drought. Threats to the outlook include the risk of intensified financial stresses in the euro area spilling over into a further slowing of the global economy and the possibility of an oil price surge triggered by rising geopolitical tensions.
| Contents | ||
| Abbreviations | ||
| Acknowledgements | ||
| In Brief | ||
| 1. Sustaining Growth amid Global Uncertainty | ||
| Introduction and Summary | ||
| Macroeconomic Policy Choices in an Uncertain World | ||
| 2. The Impact of Global Financial Stress on Sub-Saharan African Banking Financial Systems | ||
| Introduction and Summary | ||
| The Region’s Banking System Experience in 2008–09 | ||
| Financial Sector Vulnerabilities to Ongoing European Financial Stress | ||
| Policies to Enhance Financial Sector Resiliency | ||
| 3. Sub-Saharan Africa’s Natural Resource Exporters: Recent Performance and Policy Challenges | ||
| Introduction and Summary | ||
| Key Features and Recent Experiences. | ||
| Macroeconomic Policy Management Issues | ||
| Conclusions | ||
| Statistical Appendix | ||
| References | ||
| Publications of the IMF African Department, 2009–12 | ||
| Boxes | ||
| 1.1 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Country Groupings | |
| 1.2 | Impact on WAEMU of the Recovery in Côte d’Ivoire and the Drought in the Sahel | |
| 1.3 | East Africa: Persistence of the Food and Fuel Shock | |
| 1.4 | Growth Dynamics in the SACU Region in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis | |
| 1.5 | Sub-Saharan Africa’s Exposure through Trade to the Economic Slowdown in the Euro Area | |
| 2.1 | Nigeria’s Banking Crisis | |
| 2.2 | Global Financial Spillovers into Sub-Saharan Africa—A GVAR Approach | |
| 2.3 | Determinants of Financial Soundness Indicators—Bank-level Evidence | |
| 3.1 | The Distribution of Nonrenewable Natural Resources in Sub-Saharan Africa | |
| 3.2 | Global Commodity Price Movements | |
| 3.3 | Structural Transformation among Sub-Saharan African Countries | |
| 3.4 | Estimating Reserve Adequacy in Resource-Exporting Low-Income Countries | |
| Tables | ||
| 1.1 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth | |
| 1.2 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Other Macroeconomic Indicators | |
| 3.1 | Resource-Intensive Countries: Selected Resource Indicators, 2010 | |
| 3.2 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Optimal Level of Reserves in a Sample of Resource-Intensive Countries | |
| Figures | ||
| 1.1 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth by Contry Group | |
| 1.2 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Low Income Countries and Other World Regions: Real GDP Growth | |
| 1.3 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Macroeconomic Indicators | |
| 1.4 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Government Debt Ratios, 2000–11 | |
| 1.5 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Capital Investment, 2000–11 | |
| 1.6 | Sub-Saharan Africa Excluding South Africa: Credit to the Private Sector, 1995–2010 | |
| 1.7 | Selected Regions: Average Labor Productivity Growth, 1990–2009 | |
| 1.8 | Sub-Saharan Africa: CPI and Food Inflation, Average 2011 | |
| 1.9 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Changes in CPI Inflation from 12 Months Earlier, End-2012 vs. End-2011 | |
| 1.10 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Overall Fiscal Balance, 2004–12 | |
| 1.11 | Sub-Saharan Africa Non-resource Exporting LICs: Total Revenue, Excluding Grants, 2000–12 | |
| 1.12 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Exports Shares by Partner | |
| 1.13 | Sub-Saharan Africa: External Current Account Balance, 2004–12 | |
| 1.14 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Headcount Poverty Index Using the $1.25 a Day Poverty Line | |
| 1.15 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth Prospects, 2012 and 2013 | |
| 2.1 | Global Risk Aversion, 2005-12 | |
| 2.2 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Bond Flows, 2008–12 | |
| 2.3 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Equity Flows, 2008–11 | |
| 2.4 | Sub-Saharan Africa, Select Countries: Portfolio and Foreign Direct Investment, June 2011 | |
| 2.5 | Sub-Saharan Africa, Select Countries: Inward Portfolio and Foreign Direct Investment, 2010 | |
| 2.6 | Select Countries: Exchange Rate Flexibility and Stock Market Sensitivity to Changes in Global Risk Aversion | |
| 2.7 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Capital Flows and External Debt, 2005–10 | |
| 2.8 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Systemic Banking Crises, 1980–2010 | |
| 2.9 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Banks’ Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 2005–10 | |
| 2.10 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Real Domestic Bank Credit, 2004–11:Q2 | |
| 2.11 | Sub-Saharan Africa, Selected Countries: Real Credit Developments, 2005–11 | |
| 2.12 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Financial Soundess Indicators, 2006–10 | |
| 2.13 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Presence of European Banks, 2011 | |
| 2.14 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Liabilities to BIS-Reporting Banks, June 2011 | |
| 2.15 | Credit Default Swap Spreads, 2009–12 | |
| 2.16 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Bank Credit to Sub-Saharan African Residents | |
| 2.17 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Prevalence of Capital Inflow and Outflow Controls, June 2011 | |
| 2.18 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Banking System Funding, June 2011 | |
| 2.19 | Consolidated Foreign Claims of BIS-reporting Banks on African Countries, 2011 | |
| 2.20 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Broad Financial Intermediation in the Average Sub-Saharan Africa Country, June 2011 | |
| 2.21 | Sub-Saharan Africa: External Loans from and Deposits at BIS-reporting Banks, June 2011 | |
| 2.22 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Ease of Getting Credit (Rank) and Strength of Legal Rights | |
| 2.23 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Pan-African Banking Groups, June 2011 | |
| 2.24 | World: Observance of Basel Core Principles, 2011 | |
| 3.1 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Major Nonrenewable Exports | |
| 3.2 | Resource-Intensive Sub-Saharan Africa Countries: Real Resource and Nonresource GDP Growth | |
| 3.3 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Resource Price Index and Real Effective Exchange Rate, 2000–11 | |
| 3.4 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Nonresource Exports, 2001–11 | |
| 3.5 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Fiscal Revenues and Expenditures, 2000–11 | |
| 3.6 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Volatility Indicators, 2000–10 | |
| 3.7 | Sub-Saharan Africa: GDP Minus GNI Per Capita, Selected Years | |
| 3.8 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Development Indicators, 2010 | |
| 3.9 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Development Indicators, 2005–10 | |
| 3.10 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Social Indicators and Resource Abundance, 2000–09 | |
| 3.11 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Resource Dependence and Institutional Quality | |
| 3.12 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Recent Changes in the Quality of Institutions | |
| 3.13 | Sub-Saharan Africa Fiscally Dependent Countries: Resource Revenue and Nonresource Fiscal Deficit | |
| 3.14 | Selected Countries: Fiscal Benchmarks Using Spring 2012 World Economic Outlook Resource Price Projections | |