World Economic Outlook
Trade and Finance
September 2002
September 2002
A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund
©2002 International Monetary Fund
Ordering Information
| The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities. |
Contents
| 290k pdf file | Assumptions and Conventions | ||
| Preface | |||
| Foreword | |||
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| Chapter I. 735k pdf file |
Economic Prospects and Policy Issues | ||
| North America: How Well Will the Recovery be Sustained? | |||
| Japan: Are Growth Prospects Picking Up at Last? | |||
| Western Europe: A Tepid Recovery So Far | |||
| Latin America: Heightened Economic and Financial Uncertainties | |||
| Emerging Markets in Asia: Consolidating the Recovery | |||
| European Union Candidates: Surprisingly Resilient, but Some Policy Pressures | |||
| Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS): Persistent Dichotomy Between Advanced and Less Advanced Reformers | |||
| Africa: Establishing the Conditions to Grow out of Poverty | |||
| Middle East: Growing Divergences This Year; Better Prospects for 2003 | |||
| Appendix 1.1. Commodity Markets | |||
| References | |||
| Box | |||
| 1.1 | How Will Recent Falls in Equity Markets Affect Activity? | ||
| 1.2 | Market Expectations of Exchange Rate Movements | ||
| 1.3 | Reversal of Fortune: Productivity Growth in Europe and the United States | ||
| 1.4 | Brazil: The Quest to Restore Market Confidence | ||
| 1.5 | Where Is India in Terms of Trade Liberalization? | ||
| 1.6 | Foreign Direct Investment in Africa | ||
| Tables | |||
| 1.1 | Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections | ||
| 1.2 | Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment | ||
| 1.3 | Emerging Market Economies: Net Capital Flows | ||
| 1.4 | Selected Economies: Current Account Positions | ||
| 1.5 | Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt | ||
| 1.6 | Selected Western Hemisphere Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 1.7 | Selected Asian Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 1.8 | European Union Candidates: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 1.9 | Commonwealth of Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 1.10 | Selected African Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 1.11 | Selected Middle Eastern Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | ||
| 1.12 | The Impact of a $5 a Barrel, Permanent Increase in Oil Prices After a Year | ||
| Figures | |||
| 1.1 | Global Indicators | ||
| 1.2 | Current and Forward-Looking Indicators | ||
| 1.3 | Developments in Mature Financial Markets | ||
| 1.4 | Emerging Market Financial Conditions | ||
| 1.5 | Global Outlook | ||
| 1.6 | United States: Productivity, Profitability, and Investment | ||
| 1.7 | Japan: Costs of Muddling Through | ||
| 1.8 | United States, Euro Area, and United Kingdom: Contribution to Change in GDP Growth | ||
| 1.9 | Selected Western Hemisphere Countries: Exchange Rates and EMBI Yield Spreads | ||
| 1.10 | Selected Western Hemisphere Countries: Public Debt and Foreign Exchange Deposits | ||
| 1.11 | Asia: Deteriorating Fiscal Positions | ||
| 1.12 | Has Asia Become A Commodity Producer? | ||
| 1.13 | Foreign Direct Investment and Enterprise Restructuring in Transition Economies | ||
| 1.14 | European Union Accession Countries: Exports and Market Share Growth | ||
| 1.15 | Developments in Exports, FDI, and Demand for Money in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) | ||
| 1.16 | Impact of Institutional Quality in Africa | ||
| 1.17 | Middle East: Trade Restrictions | ||
| 1.18 | Oil and Non-oil Price Indices | ||
| 1.19 | OPEC Target and Actual Production of Oil | ||
| 1.20 | NYMEX Oil: Implied Volatilities from Options Prices | ||
| 1.21 | Comparison of the Semiconductor Indices, CPU, and DRAM Indices | ||
| 1.22 | Recent and Projected ENSO Effects | ||
| 1.23 | Impulse Response Functions for an ENSO Shock | ||
| Chapter II. 593k pdf file |
Essays on Trade and Finance | ||
| How Worrisome Are External Imbalances? | |||
| How Do Industrial Country Agricultural Policies Affect Developing Countries? | |||
| Capital Structure and Corporate Performance Across Emerging Markets | |||
| References | |||
| Boxes | |||
| 2.1 | The Global Current Account Discrepancy and Other Statistical Problems | ||
| 2.2 | How Have External Deficits Adjusted in the Past? | ||
| 2.3 | Cross-Country Determinants of Capital Structure | ||
| Tables | |||
| 2.1 | Growth of Output, Domestic and External Demand, 1982–2001 | ||
| 2.2 | Average Trend Balance on Goods and Nonfactor Services | ||
| 2.3 | Scenario of Higher Expected Productivity and Alternative Scenario Where Expectations Are Overoptimistic | ||
| 2.4 | Welfare Effects of Industrial, Developing, and Global Agricultural Liberalization | ||
| 2.5 | Welfare Effects of Agricultural Liberalizations by Industrial Countries | ||
| 2.6 | Institutional Factors and Corporate Vulnerabilities | ||
| 2.7 | Macroeconomic Factors and Corporate Vulnerabilities | ||
| 2.8 | Sector- and Firm-Specific Factors and Corporate Vulnerabilities | ||
| 2.9 | Sectoral Composition by Countries | ||
| 2.10 | Measures of Sample Size, 1999 | ||
| Figures | |||
| 2.1 | Selected External Sector Variables | ||
| 2.2 | Private Sector Saving and Investment, and Public Sector Balance | ||
| 2.3 | Net Foreign Positions and External Financing Flows | ||
| 2.4 | Assets and Liabilities Positions | ||
| 2.5 | Adjustment of External Imbalances in Industrial Countries, 1973–2001 | ||
| 2.6 | Composition of Producer Support Estimates (PSE) | ||
| 2.7 | Changes in Overall Producer Support Estimates (PSE) and Price-based Support, 1986–2001 | ||
| 2.8 | Welfare Effects of Agricultural Liberalization: Industrial Versus Developing Countries | ||
| 2.9 | Welfare Effects of Removing Industrial Country Tariffs and Subsidies | ||
| 2.10 | Welfare Effects of Global Agricultural Liberalization | ||
| 2.11 | Welfare Effects of Agricultural Liberalization by Industrial Countries and Per Capita Income | ||
| 2.12 | Total Debt to Total Assets | ||
| 2.13 | Regional Indicators of Corporate Fragility | ||
| 2.14 | Institutional Factors | ||
| 2.15 | Macroeconomic Factors | ||
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| Chapter III. 316k pdf file |
Trade and Financial Integration | ||
| Increasing Integration in Recent Decades | |||
| Comparison with Earlier Historical Periods | |||
| Why Does Trade Integration Differ Across Regions? | |||
| Consequences of Trade and Financial Integration for Macroeconomic Volatility | |||
| Appendix 3.1. Definitions, Data Sources, and Country Coverage | |||
| References | |||
| Boxes | |||
| 3.1 | Using Prices to Measure Goods Market Integration | ||
| 3.2 | Transport Costs | ||
| 3.3 | Gravity Model of International Trade | ||
| 3.4 | Vertical Specialization in the Global Economy | ||
| 3.5 | Trade and Growth | ||
| Tables | |||
| 3.1 | Rising Global Integration | ||
| 3.2 | Trade Openness and Saving-Investment Correlations | ||
| 3.3 | Undertrading in Developing Countries, 1995–99 | ||
| 3.4 | Changes in Undertrading Over Time | ||
| 3.5 | Bilateral Policy Restrictiveness in Developing Countries, 1997–99 | ||
| 3.6 | Gravity Model Estimates | ||
| Figures | |||
| 3.1 | Complementarity of Trade and Financial Integration | ||
| 3.2 | Complementarity of Trade and Financial Integration Across Countries | ||
| 3.3 | Global Integration, 1870–1995 | ||
| 3.4 | Why Do Developing Countries Trade Less Than Industrial Countries? | ||
| 3.5 | Why Does East Asia Trade More Than Other Developing Country Regions? | ||
| 3.6 | Factor Content of Net Exports, 1991–2000 | ||
| 3.7 | Trade and Financial Openness Across Developing Countries, 1995–99 | ||
| 3.8 | Trade and Financial Integration Across Developing Regions 1975–99 | ||
| 3.9 | Frequency of External Financial Crises in Developing Countries | ||
| 3.10 | Output Volatility, 1975–99 | ||
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| Annex. 87k pdf file |
Summing Up by the Chair | ||
| Major Currency Areas | |||
| Emerging Markets | |||
| Agricultural Policies | |||
| Capital Structure and Corporate Performance | |||
| Trade and Financial Intergration | |||
| 350k pdf file | Statistical Appendix | ||
| Assumptions | |||
| Data and Conventions | |||
| Classification of Countries | |||
| General Features and Compositions of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification | |||
| List of Tables | |||
| Output (Tables 1–7) | |||
| Inflation (Tables 8–13) | |||
| Financial Policies (Tables 14–21) | |||
| Foreign Trade (Tables 22–26) | |||
| Current Account Transactions (Tables 27–32) | |||
| Balance of Payments
and External Financing (Tables 33–37) |
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| External Debt and Debt Service (Tables 38–43) | |||
| Flow of Funds (Table 44) | |||
| Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables 45–46) | |||
| Box | |||
| A.1 | Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies | ||
| 123k pdf file | World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics | ||
