Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF)

Source details

Session No.: JV 24.32
Deadline passed
Location: Vienna, Austria
Date: October 28, 2024 - November 8, 2024 (2 weeks)
Delivery Method: Blended Training
Primary Language: English
Target Audience:
- Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making
- Staff doing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models

Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience.
It is strongly recommended that applicants have completed the Monetary Policy (MP) course and the online Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAFx) course.
Participants are expected to be comfortable using quantitative software such as EViews and Matlab/Octave, although specific knowledge of these is not required.

Presented by the Institute for Capacity Development.
Provides rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting.
Emphasizes analysis of monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks.
Provides tools to develop or extend the canonical model to fit participants’ monetary policy framework and selected features of their country’s economy.
In the in-person course, country case studies are used to reinforce participant understanding and to help compare and assess a variety of possible experiences.

Upon completion of the course, participants should be able to:

Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and the shocks this economy may face.
Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using the small semi-structural model.
Conduct nowcasting and near-term forecasting using estimation-based econometric techniques supported by expert judgment.
Use the small semi-structural model to develop consistent medium-term quarterly projections of key macro variables e.g. output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.
Identify risks in the baseline forecast and draw up medium-term projections for alternative scenarios that assume that the risks materialize.
Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis and forecasting using their own national data when they return home.