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Monetary, Exchange Rate, and Capital Account Policies

Exchange Rate Policy (ERP)

Deadline passed

Session No.: ST 24.20

Location: Singapore, Singapore

Date: December 2-13, 2024 (2 weeks)

Delivery Method: In-person Training

Primary Language: English

    Target Audience

    Junior to mid-level officials who work with exchange rate policy and analysis.

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    Qualifications

    Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent professional experience and be comfortable with Microsoft Excel and Excel-based applications.  Participants are expected to also have a working knowledge of EViews.

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    Course Description

    This course, presented by the Institute for Capacity Development, gives a comprehensive overview of exchange rate analysis and policy. Topics covered include:  

    • Key exchange rate concepts (real, nominal, bilateral, multilateral, spot, forward) and arbitrage conditions (UIP, law of one price, PPP, relative PPP); its role in achieving internal and external balance (adjustment to overall equilibrium under floating and fixed exchange rate regimes); its role in economic growth (undervaluation, Washington Consensus, the Balassa-Samuelson effect).  
    • Exchange rate policy and regimes (taxonomy, impossible trinity) and associated policy mix (monetary policy independence, financial stability, fiscal policy, capital controls).  
    • Practical Problems of Exchange Rate Policy in Developing and Emerging Market Economies (concerns of excessive volatility; de jure vs. de facto regimes; competitiveness, price stability; exchange-rate pass-through; targets and instruments).  
    • Transitions from rigid to flexible exchange rates regimes (motives; speed of transition; deep and liquid domestic FX markets, derivatives markets, coherent intervention policy, nominal anchor; transition sequence).   
    • FX interventions (sterilized or non-sterilized; motivations, channels, effectiveness, instruments, tactics, policy communication).  
    • Currency crisis (causes, role of macroeconomic and prudential policies).  
    • Assessing reserve adequacy (ARA).  
    • External Balance Assessment (EBA).  
    • Early warning system.
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    Course Objectives

    Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to: 

    • Assess reserve adequacy with traditional and the IMF ARA metric.  
    • Assess external balance position with EBA and EBA-lite methodologies.  
    • Construct systems for early warning of currency crises using data on nominal exchange rates and international reserves. 
    • Describe the exchange rate regime choice and how country-specific features could influence the choice. 
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