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General Macroeconomic Analysis

Nowcasting (NWC)

Deadline passed

Session No.: ST 24.23

Location: Singapore, Singapore

Date: June 3-14, 2024 (2 weeks)

Delivery Method: In-person Training

Primary Language: English

    Target Audience

    Junior and middle-level officials from ministries of finance, central banks, and other interested public institutions. 

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    Qualifications

    Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience, a basic understanding of time-series econometrics and be comfortable using EViews (econometric software package). It is strongly recommended that applicants havecompleted a few general macroeconomic courses, such as Macroeconomic Forecasting and Analysis (MFA), Macroeconomic Diagnostic (MDS), face-to-face or online.

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    Course Description

    This course, presented by the Institute for Capacity Development, provides participants with cutting-edge nowcasting tools that familiarize them with the concepts and methods to incorporate high-frequency economic indicators into the forecasting process, while integrating this training into technical assistance on data compilation and dissemination. Each topic is complemented by hands-on workshops and assignments designed to illuminate the steps required to formulate a nowcasting model and generate a nowcast. 

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    Course Objectives

    Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to: 

    • Understand and be proficient in the steps required to manage time-series data in EViews, estimate an OLS regression and calculate its associated forecasts in EViews. 
    • Formulate several useful statistical procedures in EViews, including consolidation of time series from higher to lower frequencies; interpolation techniques; seasonal adjustment; and use of leading indicators. 
    • Identify appropriate high-frequency indicators useful for the nowcasting macroeconomic variables and prepare them for use in a nowcasting exercise. 
    • Formulate and estimate a nowcasting regression using several approaches (including Bridge, MIDAS, and U-MIDAS estimators). 
    • Generate a nowcast from the base regression and consolidate competing forecasts using combination forecasts. 
    • Evaluate the accuracy of the nowcast using several forecasting performance indicators. 
    • Apply the nowcasting tools to their own country data and interpret the nowcast appropriately in policy making settings.  
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