IMF Staff Country Reports

Jordan: Technical Assistance Report-Forecasting Framework for Currency in Circulation

Publication Date:

April 7, 2022

Electronic Access:

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Summary:

The currency in circulation forecasting model presently used by the Central Bank of Jordan is aligned with international practices and provides a solid basis for liquidity management. The central bank uses an Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model with many indicator variables to model binary seasonality and to capture special events. The ARIMA model is fitted on daily currency in circulation data using a standard maximum likelihood estimator. This ARIMA approach is aligned with the models traditionally used by central banks in emerging and middle-income countries.

Series:

Country Report No. 2022/101

Subject:

Central banks Currency issuance Economic forecasting International organization Monetary base Monetary policy Money Open market operations

Frequency:

regular