IMF Staff Country Reports

This Selected Issues paper analyzes Togo’s growth over the past two decades to provide a better understanding of the past and of the medium-term growth outlook. First, it describes historical growth using a narrative approach, identifying five distinct periods based on key growth drivers and growth outcomes. Second, the paper uses growth accounting to identify the historical drivers of growth from a production function perspective. It then estimates the path of historical (unobserved) potential gross domestic product using various statistical tools. All these analyses suggest that in a context of limited fiscal space, reaching growth of 5–6 percent per year over the medium term is possible but will require determined implementation of reforms to spur productivity and private investment. Togo's commitment to further enhance infrastructure investment and public enterprise service provision is most welcome and should continue. By maintaining a focus on efficiency, transparency, and inclusivity, Togo can lay the foundation for a prosperous future.