Regional Economic Outlook

These reports discuss recent economic developments and prospects for countries in various regions. They also address economic policy developments that have affected economic performance in the regions, and discuss key challenges faced by policymakers. They address regional policy developments and challenges, and provide country-specific data and analysis, including through analytical pieces on issues of interest to a particular region.

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Asia and Pacific Region

Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific, October 2022

October 27, 2022

Description: After the strong rebound of 6.5 percent posted in 2021, growth in Asia and Pacific is expected to moderate to 4.0 percent in 2022 amid an uncertain global environment and rise to 4.3 percent in 2023. Inflation has risen above most central bank targets, but is expected to peak in late 2022. As the effects of the pandemic wane, the region faces new headwinds from global financial tightening and an expected slowdown of external demand. While Asia remains a relative bright spot in an increasingly lethargic global economy, it is expected to expand at a rate that is well below the average rate of 5½ percent seen over the preceding two decades.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, October 2022

October 14, 2022

Description: Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery has been abruptly interrupted. Last year, activity finally bounced back, lifting GDP growth in 2021 to 4.7 percent. But growth in 2022 is expected to slow sharply by more than 1 percentage point to 3.6 percent, as a worldwide slowdown, tighter global financial conditions, and a dramatic pickup in global inflation spill into a region already wearied by an ongoing series of shocks.

Western Hemisphere Region

Regional Economic Outlook for the Western Hemisphere, October 2022

October 13, 2022

Description: Recent developments in the Western Hemisphere—that is, the United States/Canada and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)—have been dominated by the impact of two distinct global shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic and then the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A third shock—the tightening of financial conditions—is now shaping the outlook. After contracting sharply in 2020, most of the Western Hemisphere’ economies recovered strongly in 2021 and early 2022, helped by the global recovery, the normalization of service sectors, and booming commodity prices. However, inflation pressures built up with pandemic-related disruptions, expansionary policies, rebounding demand, and the impact of the war in Ukraine on energy and food prices. The swift response of LAC’s monetary authorities to rising inflation—well ahead of other economies—helped contain price pressures and keep long-term inflation expectations anchored, but inflation remains high. Amid global monetary and financial tightening, and the ensuing slowdown in global growth and softening of commodity prices, activity is expected to decelerate throughout the Western Hemisphere in late 2022 and 2023, while inflation pressures are expected to recede gradually.

Middle East and Central Asia

Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia, October 2022

October 12, 2022

Description: In a worsening global environment, economies in the Middle East and Central Asia (ME&CA) are being buffeted by a confluence of shocks: a global slowdown, high and volatile food and energy prices, faster and stronger-than-expected tightening of financial conditions, and the risk of fragmentation. The region’s emerging market and middle-income economies (EM&MIs) and low-income countries (LICs) are hit hard, with many facing curtailed access to market financing, while oil-exporting countries are being buffered by still-high energy prices. The adverse impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) has thus far been milder than expected. Still, the CCA’s strong ties to Russia entail substantial risks to the region’s outlook.

Europe

Regional Economic Outlook for Europe, October 2022

October 12, 2022

Description: The war in Ukraine is taking a growing toll on Europe’s economies. The worsening energy crisis has depressed households’ purchasing power and raised firms’ costs, only partly offset by new government support. Central banks in the region and the world are acting more forcefully to bring high and persistent inflation down to targets, and global financial conditions have tightened. European policymakers are facing severe trade-offs and tough policy choices. A tightening macroeconomic policy stance is needed to bring down inflation, while helping vulnerable households and viable firms weather the energy crisis. But policies need to stay nimble and agile and adjust should additional shocks materialize.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, April 2022

April 28, 2022

Description: The economic recovery in sub-Saharan Africa surprised on the upside in the second half of 2021, prompting a significant upward revision in last year’s estimated growth, from 3.7 to 4.5 percent. This year, however, that progress has been jeopardized by the Russian invasion of Ukraine which has triggered a global economic shock that is hitting the region at a time when countries’ policy space to respond to it is minimal to nonexistent. Most notably, surging oil and food prices are straining the external and fiscal balances of commodity-importing countries and have increased food security concerns in the region.

Middle East and Central Asia

Regional Economic Outlook April 2022 Middle East Central Asia

April 27, 2022

Description: The war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia are exacerbating the divergence in recovery prospects for the Middle East and Central Asia. Despite better-than-expected momentum in 2021, the economic environment in 2022 is defined by extraordinary headwinds and uncertainties, particularly for commodity importers, with higher and more volatile commodity prices, rising inflationary pressures, faster-than-expected monetary policy normalization in advanced economies, and a lingering pandemic.

Western Hemisphere Region

Regional Economic Outlook for the Western Hemisphere, April 2022

April 26, 2022

Description: The war in Ukraine is shaking the world economy and raising uncertainty about the outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean. Even before the war, the region’s recovery from the pandemic was losing momentum and growth is returning to its pre-pandemic trend rate of around 2.5 percent for 2022. The war brings a further shock to inflation, and policymakers across the region have reacted decisively by tightening monetary policy and implementing measures to soften the blow of higher food and energy prices on the most vulnerable—thus mitigating the risks of social unrest. Rising interest rates complicate the management of already high debt levels, and an escalation of the war could further tighten financial conditions in the region. In this context, an inclusive fiscal consolidation strategy would maintain support for the vulnerable while helping rebuild buffers.

Asia and Pacific Region

Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific, April 2022

April 21, 2022

Description: Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific, April 2022

Europe

Regional Economic Outlook for Europe, April 2022

April 20, 2022

Description: The Russian invasion of Ukraine created a humanitarian catastrophe. In two months since the outbreak of the war, about 5 million people, mostly women and children, fled Ukraine, and a further 7 million are estimated to be displaced internally. In addition, thousands have been wounded or killed.

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