Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in Developing Oil-Producing Countries?
IMF Working Papers, July 1, 2011
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in Developing Oil-Producing Countries?
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Authors: Nese Erbil
- Published: July 1, 2011
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781462314324.001
Study scope and data
- Sample: 28 developing oil-producing countries (OPCs)
- Period: 1990-2009
- Fiscal measures tested: government expenditure, consumption, investment, non-oil revenue, and non-oil primary balance
- Paper length: 32 pages
- Series: Working Paper No. 2011/171, Volume: 2011, Issue: 171, ISBN: 9781462314324, ISSN: 1018-5941, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781462314324.001
Methodology
- Empirical approach corrects for reverse causality between non-oil output and fiscal variables.
- Five fiscal measures are individually tested for cyclicality.
Key findings
- In the full sample, all five fiscal variables are strongly procyclical.
- Results vary across income groups:
- Expenditure is procyclical in the low- and middle-income countries.
- Expenditure is countercyclical in the high-income countries.
- Determinants differ by income group:
- Fiscal policy tends to be affected by external financing constraints in the middle- and high-income groups.
- The quality of institutions and political structure appear to be more significant determinants for the low-income group.
Subjects and keywords (as listed)
- Subjects: Expenditure, Fiscal policy, National accounts, Oil, gas and mining taxes, Personal income, Procyclical fiscal policy, Taxes
- Keywords: countercyclical fiscal policies, country, financing constraint, Fiscal Policy, fiscal policy Procyclical, gas and mining taxes, Global, govenment expenditure, institutions, low income, macroeconomic policy, Oil, oil price volatility, oil producing countries, oil revenue, Personal income, Procyclical fiscal policy, revenue, stabilization fund, WP
Source: Nese Erbil, "Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in Developing Oil-Producing Countries?", IMF Working Papers 2011, 171 (2011).