Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources—Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections

Author/Editor:

Atish R. Ghosh ; Juan Zalduendo ; Manuela Goretti ; Bikas Joshi ; Alun H. Thomas

Publication Date:

March 1, 2007

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to decline sharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000?05 to SDR 8 billion over 2006?10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on WEO projections with a correction for historically-observed over-optimistic biases. Alternative scenarios assuming a weaker economic performance or a less benign global environment do not alter these results.

Series:

Working Paper No. 07/70

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

March 1, 2007

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451866346/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2007070

Format:

Paper

Pages:

44

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