Quantifying the Spillovers from China Rebalancing Using a Multi-Sector Ricardian Trade Model
November 15, 2016
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Summary
This paper assesses the spillovers from different facets of China rebalancing using a calibrated Ricardian trade model that includes 41 economies, each consisting of 34 sectors. We find that China’s move up the value chain in particular has the potential for significant spillovers – on the one hand, adversely affecting industrialized economies heavily involved in the Asia value chain, while at the same time generating positive spillovers to lower and middle income countries. The model’s strength lies in endogenously capturing production value chains and international trade of goods across sectors.
Subject: Consumption, Exports, Financial sector policy and analysis, Income, International trade, National accounts, Production, Productivity, Spillovers
Keywords: Asia and Pacific, China rebalancing, Consumption, export growth pattern, export share, Exports, exports contract, goods trade channel, Income, production value chains, Productivity, sectoral trade, Spillovers, trade channel, trade model, value chain, WP
Pages:
38
Volume:
2016
DOI:
Issue:
219
Series:
Working Paper No. 2016/219
Stock No:
WPIEA2016219
ISBN:
9781475553741
ISSN:
1018-5941
