Still Minding the Gap—Inflation Dynamics during Episodes of Persistent Large Output Gaps

August 1, 2010

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Andre Meier. Still Minding the Gap—Inflation Dynamics during Episodes of Persistent Large Output Gaps, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2010) accessed September 19, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper studies inflation dynamics during 25 historical episodes in advanced economies where output remained well below potential for an extended period. We find that such episodes generally brought about significant disinflation, underpinned by weak labor markets, slowing wage growth, and, in many cases, falling oil prices. Indeed, inflation declined by about the same fraction of the initial inflation rate across episodes. That said, disinflation has tended to taper off at very low positive inflation rates, arguably reflecting downward nominal rigidities and well-anchored inflation expectations. Temporary inflation increases during episodes were, in turn, systematically related to currency depreciation or higher oil prices. Overall, the historical patterns suggest little upside inflation risk in advanced economies facing the prospect of persistent large output gaps.

Subject: Central bank policy rate, Disinflation, Inflation, Oil prices, Output gap

Keywords: Exchange rate, Output gap coefficient, PLOG episode, Rate of inflation, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

36
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2010/189
Stock No:

WPIEA2010189
ISBN:

9781455202232
ISSN:

1018-5941

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