Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author/Editor:

Giovanni Melina ; Rafael A Portillo

Publication Date:

March 5, 2018

Electronic Access:

Free Full Text. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

We compare business cycle fluctuations in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Our main results are as follows: (i) African economies stand out by their macroeconomic volatility, which is is reflected in the volatility of output and other macro variables; (ii) inflation and output tend to be negatively correlated; (iii) unlike advanced economies and emerging markets (EMs), trade balances and current accounts are acyclical in SSA; (iv) the volatility of consumption and investment relative to GDP is larger than in other countries; (v) the cyclicality of consumption and investment is smaller than in advanced economies and EMs; (vi) there is little comovement between consumption and investment; (vii) consumption and investment are strongly positively correlated with imports.

Series:

Working Paper No. 18/40

English

Publication Date:

March 5, 2018

ISBN/ISSN:

9781484344880/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2018040

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

32

Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org