Getting on Track to Net Zero: Accelerating a Global Just Transition in This Decade
Staff Climate Notes, November 4, 2022
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Simon Black, Jean Chateau, Florence Jaumotte, Ian W.H. Parry, Gregor Schwerhoff, Sneha D Thube, Karlygash Zhunussova
- Published: November 4, 2022
- Series: Staff Climate Notes
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400223877.066
Summary
- To contain global warming to between 2°C and 1.5°C, global greenhouse gas emissions must be cut 25 to 50 percent below 2019 levels by 2030.
- Even if fully achieved, current country pledges would cut global emissions by just 11 percent.
- This Note presents illustrative options for closing this ambition gap equitably and discusses their economic impacts across countries.
- Options exist to accelerate a global just transition in this decade, involving greater emission reductions by high-income countries and climate finance, but further delays in climate action would put 1.5°C beyond reach.
- Global abatement costs remain low under 2°C-consistent scenarios, with burdens rising with income levels.
- With efficient policies of carbon pricing with productive revenue use, welfare costs become negative when including domestic environmental co-benefits, before even counting climate benefits.
- GDP effects from global decarbonization remain uncertain, but modeling suggests they exceed abatement costs especially for carbon-intensive and fossil-fuel-exporting countries.
- Ratcheting up climate finance can help make global decarbonization efforts more progressive.
Key Findings and Quantitative Targets
- Emissions reduction target: 25 to 50 percent below 2019 levels by 2030 to contain warming between 2°C and 1.5°C.
- Current pledges impact: 11 percent reduction in global emissions if fully achieved.
- Under 2°C-consistent scenarios, global abatement costs are characterized as remaining low.
- Burden distribution: Abatement burdens rise with income levels.
- Welfare impact with policy: Carbon pricing combined with productive revenue use yields negative welfare costs when domestic environmental co-benefits are included.
Economic Impacts and Uncertainties
- GDP effects from global decarbonization are uncertain.
- Modeling indicates GDP effects may exceed direct abatement costs for:
- carbon-intensive countries
- fossil-fuel-exporting countries
- Welfare considerations emphasize domestic environmental co-benefits in addition to climate benefits.
Policy Options and Equity Considerations
- Accelerate emission reductions in this decade, with greater effort by high-income countries.
- Increase climate finance to support a just transition and make decarbonization efforts more progressive.
- Implement efficient carbon pricing paired with productive use of revenue to reduce welfare costs and capture domestic co-benefits.
Additional Metadata and Context (from the publication page)
- Series: Staff Climate Note No 2022/010
- Issue: 010
- Pages: 38
- Publication date: November 4, 2022
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400223877.066
- ISBN: 9798400223877
- ISSN: 2789-0600
- Subject keywords include: Climate change, Climate policy, Economic sectors, Environment, Financial crises, Greenhouse gas emissions
- Keyword examples: abatement cost, ambition gap, carbon pricing, climate finance, differentiated responsibilities, GDP, welfare cost
Source: Getting on Track to Net Zero: Accelerating a Global Just Transition in This Decade, Staff Climate Note No 2022/010 (November 4, 2022).
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