Staff Climate Notes

Getting on Track to Net Zero: Accelerating a Global Just Transition in This Decade

By Simon Black, Jean Chateau, Florence Jaumotte, Ian W.H. Parry, Gregor Schwerhoff, Sneha D Thube, Karlygash Zhunussova

November 4, 2022

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Simon Black, Jean Chateau, Florence Jaumotte, Ian W.H. Parry, Gregor Schwerhoff, Sneha D Thube, and Karlygash Zhunussova. Getting on Track to Net Zero: Accelerating a Global Just Transition in This Decade, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2022) accessed April 28, 2025

Summary

To contain global warming to between 2°C and 1.5°C, global greenhouse gas emissions must be cut 25 to 50 percent below 2019 levels by 2030. Even if fully achieved, current country pledges would cut global emissions by just 11 percent. This Note presents illustrative options for closing this ambition gap equitably and discusses their economic impacts across countries. Options exist to accelerate a global just transition in this decade, involving greater emission reductions by high-income countries and climate finance, but further delays in climate action would put 1.5°C beyond reach. Global abatement costs remain low under 2°C-consistent scenarios, with burdens rising with income levels. With efficient policies of carbon pricing with productive revenue use, welfare costs become negative when including domestic environmental co-benefits, before even counting climate benefits. GDP effects from global decarbonization remain uncertain, but modeling suggests they exceed abatement costs especially for carbon-intensive and fossil-fuel-exporting countries. Ratcheting up climate finance can help make global decarbonization efforts more progressive.

Subject: Climate change, Climate policy, Economic sectors, Environment, Financial crises, Greenhouse gas emissions

Keywords: Abatement cost, Abatement costs, Africa, Ambition gap, Burden sharing, Carbon pricing, Caribbean, Climate benefit, Climate change, Climate change mitigation, Climate finance, Climate policy, Differentiated responsibilities, East Asia, Eastern Europe, GDP, Global, Greenhouse gas emissions, IMF staff climate note, IMF staff climate Note 2022/010, Mitigation pledges, Policy gap, Welfare cost, Welfare costs

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    38

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Staff Climate Note No 2022/010

  • Stock No:

    CLNEA2022010

  • ISBN:

    9798400223877

  • ISSN:

    2789-0600

Notes

Online Appendix

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