Raphael A. Espinoza

Last Updated: November 11, 2019

Raphael Espinoza is a Deputy Division Chief in the Fiscal Affairs Department and an external research associate at the University of Oxford. He has written on fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability. He was an Assistant Professor in Economics at University College London (UCL), where he was also the Director of the Centre for Studies of Emerging Economies. At the IMF he worked on the UK desk (2018-19), on Spain during the euro area crisis, on the Dominican Republic (2009-10 IMF program), and on Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E during the GFC (2008-10). Before joining the IMF, he was an Economist at the ECB, focusing on the US economy during the subprime crisis. He has also been a financial stability expert for the central banks of Peru and Colombia, and a consultant for the World Bank Research Department, the French Treasury and the OECD.

Email: RESPINOZA@imf.org

Fluent In: French, Spanish.

Education:

PhD in Economics, University of Oxford, 2009

Visiting PhD student, Yale University, 2007

MSc. in Economics for Development, University of Oxford, 2004

Ingenieur des Ponts et Chaussees (MSc. in Applied Mathematics), 2004


Previous Experience:

Senior Economist, European Department, UK desk, IMF, 2018-2019

Director, Centre for Comparative Studies of Emerging Economies, UCL, 2015-2016

Assistant Professor in Economics, University College London (UCL), 2014-2016

Senior Economist/Economist, Research Department, Systemic Issues Division, IMF, 2011-2018

Economist, Strategy, Policy and Review Department, Strategy Unit for Low Income Countries, IMF, 2010-2011

Economist, Middle East and Central Asia Department, Gulf Cooperation Council Division, IMF, 2008-2010

Economist, International Environment Division, European Central Bank, 2007-2008


Field of Expertise:

Development Economics

Monetary Policy

Macro-Financial Issues

Open Economy Macroeconomics

IMF Books and Working Papers:

The Fiscal Multiplier of Public Investment: The Role of Corporate Balance Sheet , Working Paper No. 20/199 , September 25, 2020

Systemic Risk Modeling: How Theory Can Meet Statistics , Working Paper No. 20/54 , March 13, 2020

Economic Gains From Gender Inclusion : New Mechanisms, New Evidence , Staff Discussion Notes No. 18/06 , October 08, 2018

Macroprudential Stress Tests: A Reduced-Form Approach to Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses , Working Paper No. 18/49 , March 09, 2018

FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model , Working Paper No. 17/207 , September 29, 2017

How Do Fiscal and Labor Policies in France Affect Inequality? , Working Paper No. 16/41 , February 29, 2016

Wage Moderation in Crises : Policy Considerations and Applications to the Euro Area , Staff Discussion Notes No. 15/22 , November 17, 2015

When Should Public Debt Be Reduced? , Staff Discussion Notes No. 15/10 , June 02, 2015

Labor Tax Cuts and Employment: A General Equilibrium Approach for France , Working Paper No. 14/114 , July 01, 2014

The Macroeconomics of the Arab States of the Gulf , November 21, 2013

Monetary Transaction Costs and the Term Premium , Working Paper No. 13/85 , April 03, 2013

Optimal Oil Production and the World Supply of Oil , Working Paper No. 12/294 , December 17, 2012

As You sow so Shall You Reap : Public Investment Surges, Growth, and Debt Sustainability in togo , Working Paper No. 12/127 , May 01, 2012

Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries , Working Paper No. 12/132 , May 01, 2012

Spillovers to Low-Income Countries : Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets , Working Paper No. 12/49 , February 01, 2012

Probabilities of Default and the Market Price of Risk in a Distressed Economy , Working Paper No. 11/75 , April 01, 2011

How Strong Are Fiscal Multipliers in the GCC? An Empirical Investigation , Working Paper No. 11/61 , March 01, 2011

Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects , Working Paper No. 10/224 , October 01, 2010

Recent Credit Stagnation in the MENA Region: What to Expect? What Can Be Done? , Working Paper No. 10/219 , September 01, 2010

Regional Financial Integration in the GCC , Working Paper No. 10/90 , April 01, 2010

Estimating The Inflation-Growth Nexus - A Smooth Transition Model , Working Paper No. 10/76 , March 01, 2010

The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area , Working Paper No. 09/241 , November 01, 2009

Regional Financial Integration in the Caribbean: Evidence from Financial and Macroeconomic Data , Working Paper No. 09/139 , July 01, 2009

Books

Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States, forthcoming, Oxford University Press, co-edited with Ralph Chami and Peter Montiel

The Macroeconomics of the Arab States of the Gulf, with G. Fayad and A. Prasad, Oxford University Press, 2013

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model, forthcoming, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, with Z. Alla and A.R. Ghosh

Labor Tax Cuts and Employment: A General Equilibrium Approach, Economie et Prevision (in French), 2017

Monetary Transaction Costs and the Term Premium," with D. Tsomocos, Economic Theory, 2015

Spillovers to Low-Income Countries: Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets, with E. Dabla-Norris and S. Jahan, Applied Economics, 2015

Optimal Oil Production and the World Supply of Pil, with N. Aleksandrov and L. Gyurko, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2013

When Should We Worry About Inflation?, with H. Leon and A. Prasad, World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 26(1), pp. 100-127.

State Prices, Liquidity and Default, with C. Goodhart and D. Tsomocos, Economic Theory, Vol. 39, No.2, pp 177-194, 2009.

The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity, with F. Fornari and M. Lombardi, Journal of Forecasting, 2011.

Further Fallout from the Global Financial Crisis - Credit Crunch in the 'Periphery', with A. Barajas, R. Chami and H. Hesse, World Economics, Vol.12(2), 2011.

Regional Financial Integration in the GCC, with A. Prasad and O. Williams, Emerging Markets Review, Vol. 12(4), 2011.

Automatic Stabilizers in France (in French, Les Stabilisateurs Automatiques en France), Économie et Prévision, No. 177, 2007.

Evaluating the Success of Malaysia's Exchange Controls (1998-99), with A. Abbas, Oxford Development Studies, Vol. 34(2), 2006.

Other Published Materials

Optimal Oil Extraction as a Multiple Real Option, 2011, with N. Aleksandrov, OxCarre Research Paper 64, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

Government Spending, Subsidies and Economic Efficiency in the GCC, OxCarre Research Paper 95, University of Oxford, Department of Economics

Factor Accumulation and the Determinants of TFP in the GCC, OxCarre Research Paper 94, University of Oxford, Department of Economics

Raphael Espinoza is a Deputy Division Chief in the Fiscal Affairs Department and an external research associate at the University of Oxford. He has written on fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability. He was an Assistant Professor in Economics at University College London (UCL), where he was also the Director of the Centre for Studies of Emerging Economies. At the IMF he worked on the UK desk (2018-19), on Spain during the euro area crisis, on the Dominican Republic (2009-10 IMF program), and on Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E during the GFC (2008-10). Before joining the IMF, he was an Economist at the ECB, focusing on the US economy during the subprime crisis. He has also been a financial stability expert for the central banks of Peru and Colombia, and a consultant for the World Bank Research Department, the French Treasury and the OECD.

Email: RESPINOZA@imf.org

Fluent In: French, Spanish.

Education:

PhD in Economics, University of Oxford, 2009

Visiting PhD student, Yale University, 2007

MSc. in Economics for Development, University of Oxford, 2004

Ingenieur des Ponts et Chaussees (MSc. in Applied Mathematics), 2004


Previous Experience:

Senior Economist, European Department, UK desk, IMF, 2018-2019

Director, Centre for Comparative Studies of Emerging Economies, UCL, 2015-2016

Assistant Professor in Economics, University College London (UCL), 2014-2016

Senior Economist/Economist, Research Department, Systemic Issues Division, IMF, 2011-2018

Economist, Strategy, Policy and Review Department, Strategy Unit for Low Income Countries, IMF, 2010-2011

Economist, Middle East and Central Asia Department, Gulf Cooperation Council Division, IMF, 2008-2010

Economist, International Environment Division, European Central Bank, 2007-2008


Field of Expertise:

Development Economics

Monetary Policy

Macro-Financial Issues

Open Economy Macroeconomics

IMF Books and Working Papers:

The Fiscal Multiplier of Public Investment: The Role of Corporate Balance Sheet , Working Paper No. 20/199 , September 25, 2020

Systemic Risk Modeling: How Theory Can Meet Statistics , Working Paper No. 20/54 , March 13, 2020

Economic Gains From Gender Inclusion : New Mechanisms, New Evidence , Staff Discussion Notes No. 18/06 , October 08, 2018

Macroprudential Stress Tests: A Reduced-Form Approach to Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses , Working Paper No. 18/49 , March 09, 2018

FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model , Working Paper No. 17/207 , September 29, 2017

How Do Fiscal and Labor Policies in France Affect Inequality? , Working Paper No. 16/41 , February 29, 2016

Wage Moderation in Crises : Policy Considerations and Applications to the Euro Area , Staff Discussion Notes No. 15/22 , November 17, 2015

When Should Public Debt Be Reduced? , Staff Discussion Notes No. 15/10 , June 02, 2015

Labor Tax Cuts and Employment: A General Equilibrium Approach for France , Working Paper No. 14/114 , July 01, 2014

The Macroeconomics of the Arab States of the Gulf , November 21, 2013

Monetary Transaction Costs and the Term Premium , Working Paper No. 13/85 , April 03, 2013

Optimal Oil Production and the World Supply of Oil , Working Paper No. 12/294 , December 17, 2012

As You sow so Shall You Reap : Public Investment Surges, Growth, and Debt Sustainability in togo , Working Paper No. 12/127 , May 01, 2012

Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries , Working Paper No. 12/132 , May 01, 2012

Spillovers to Low-Income Countries : Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets , Working Paper No. 12/49 , February 01, 2012

Probabilities of Default and the Market Price of Risk in a Distressed Economy , Working Paper No. 11/75 , April 01, 2011

How Strong Are Fiscal Multipliers in the GCC? An Empirical Investigation , Working Paper No. 11/61 , March 01, 2011

Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects , Working Paper No. 10/224 , October 01, 2010

Recent Credit Stagnation in the MENA Region: What to Expect? What Can Be Done? , Working Paper No. 10/219 , September 01, 2010

Regional Financial Integration in the GCC , Working Paper No. 10/90 , April 01, 2010

Estimating The Inflation-Growth Nexus - A Smooth Transition Model , Working Paper No. 10/76 , March 01, 2010

The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area , Working Paper No. 09/241 , November 01, 2009

Regional Financial Integration in the Caribbean: Evidence from Financial and Macroeconomic Data , Working Paper No. 09/139 , July 01, 2009

Books

Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States, forthcoming, Oxford University Press, co-edited with Ralph Chami and Peter Montiel

The Macroeconomics of the Arab States of the Gulf, with G. Fayad and A. Prasad, Oxford University Press, 2013

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model, forthcoming, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, with Z. Alla and A.R. Ghosh

Labor Tax Cuts and Employment: A General Equilibrium Approach, Economie et Prevision (in French), 2017

Monetary Transaction Costs and the Term Premium," with D. Tsomocos, Economic Theory, 2015

Spillovers to Low-Income Countries: Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets, with E. Dabla-Norris and S. Jahan, Applied Economics, 2015

Optimal Oil Production and the World Supply of Pil, with N. Aleksandrov and L. Gyurko, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2013

When Should We Worry About Inflation?, with H. Leon and A. Prasad, World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 26(1), pp. 100-127.

State Prices, Liquidity and Default, with C. Goodhart and D. Tsomocos, Economic Theory, Vol. 39, No.2, pp 177-194, 2009.

The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity, with F. Fornari and M. Lombardi, Journal of Forecasting, 2011.

Further Fallout from the Global Financial Crisis - Credit Crunch in the 'Periphery', with A. Barajas, R. Chami and H. Hesse, World Economics, Vol.12(2), 2011.

Regional Financial Integration in the GCC, with A. Prasad and O. Williams, Emerging Markets Review, Vol. 12(4), 2011.

Automatic Stabilizers in France (in French, Les Stabilisateurs Automatiques en France), Économie et Prévision, No. 177, 2007.

Evaluating the Success of Malaysia's Exchange Controls (1998-99), with A. Abbas, Oxford Development Studies, Vol. 34(2), 2006.

Other Published Materials

Optimal Oil Extraction as a Multiple Real Option, 2011, with N. Aleksandrov, OxCarre Research Paper 64, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

Government Spending, Subsidies and Economic Efficiency in the GCC, OxCarre Research Paper 95, University of Oxford, Department of Economics

Factor Accumulation and the Determinants of TFP in the GCC, OxCarre Research Paper 94, University of Oxford, Department of Economics