Gender

The Executive Board discussed the Independent Evaluation Office’s review of IMF fiscal policy advice from 2008 to 2023. Directors welcomed the evaluation and noted the Fund’s progress in adapting its guidance to changing global conditions. The discussion highlighted the evolution from a narrow focus on debt sustainability toward a more integrated approach that balances fiscal sustainability, output stabilization, and long-term growth. Directors acknowledged improvements in analytical tools, including debt sustainability frameworks and fiscal risk assessments, while emphasizing the need for clearer articulation of fiscal stance and better integration of long-term spending priorities. The Board reaffirmed its commitment to transparency and consistency in providing candid, country-specific advice to help members navigate fiscal challenges.

Economic activity remained resilient in 2025. However, the outlook is shadowed by the deepening impact of foreign aid cuts and high uncertainty. These are exacerbated by the challenging domestic security situation and political tensions, as well as climate shocks.

The Managing Director welcomes the Independent Evaluation Office’s assessment of IMF fiscal policy advice over the past 15 years. The evaluation highlights the Fund’s evolution from a narrow focus on debt sustainability to a more balanced framework that integrates output stabilization, fiscal sustainability, and long-term growth objectives.

Haiti continues to face exceptional challenges amid a deteriorating security environment and institutional fragility. Gang violence has intensified, undermining state authority and disrupting economic activity. Uncertainty persists over the political transition and the feasibility of holding general elections in 2026. The United Nations Security Council’s authorization to deploy a new Gang Suppression Force and the establishment of a United Nations Support Office for Haiti mark a potential turning point for the country, though security gains will take time to materialize and will require international support.

2025 Selected Issues

The Philippine economy has achieved successful disinflation on the back of a well-calibrated monetary policy tightening cycle and concerted government measures to reduce food prices. Domestic demand, underpinned by public spending, has been resilient, supporting headline growth. The Philippines is affected by the recent increase in global trade barriers, though its direct exposures remain relatively limited, playing a mitigating role. Growth is expected to remain robust but below its potential in the near term amid heightened external challenges, while inflation is expected to remain muted. Risks are tilted to the downside, stemming from rising global trade barriers and policy uncertainty, while natural disasters continue to pose important macroeconomic risks.

This paper examines the role of ‘healthy aging’ in boosting labor supply in Korea. First, we use microdata from surveys to assess whether there is evidence that the physical abilities of individuals aged 50 years and above have been improving over successive cohorts. Second, we investigate whether health improvements among older workers influence their labor market outcomes, such as the decision to supply labor or to retire. We use an instrumental variable approach to enable causal inference, proxying exogenous variations in health with the incidence of certain chronic diseases. Our findings reveal that (i) physical health indicators have improved on average across birth cohorts, providing evidence in favor of ‘healthy aging’ in Korea, and (ii) better health increases the probability of participating in the labor force and postponing retirement. Overall, our results suggest that healthy aging has increased the labor supply of older individuals in Korea by around 1.9 percentage points per year during the 2006-20 period. The results for Korea are qualitatively comparable but quantitatively somewhat stronger than those for comparator Asian countries.

This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of credit supply shocks in Mongolia. Using bank credit surveys and a newly constructed indicator of changes in lending standards, adjusted for macroeconomic and bank-specific factors influencing credit demand, we identify the impact of credit supply disruptions on key macroeconomic variables. Our findings reveal that one standard deviation shock to credit supply leads to an initial reduction in total lending growth, output growth, and inflation. Decomposing the shocks into credit supply components we find that shocks to enterprise and household lending also have similar effects on respective lending growth rates. However, household credit supply shocks have a stronger impact on output growth, while enterprise credit supply shocks have a stronger impact on inflation. Variance decomposition analysis suggests that adjusted credit supply shocks purged from demand fluctuations hold significant power in explaining the variability of macroeconomic variables. Overall, our results confirm the importance of credit supply shocks for macroeconomic variables in Mongolia.

Household savings in China are markedly higher than in peer economies, which have been channeled into financing excessive investment. This paper examines the structural and cyclical factors contributing to China’s elevated household savings. The analysis suggests that low government social spending in rural areas and residency (“Hukou”) restrictions in urban areas play a significant role in increasing household savings. In addition, the paper provides evidence that fluctuations in real estate prices significantly impact household savings, both through the wealth effect and the downpayment effect (i.e., need for non-homeowners to save so as to afford downpayments), though the latter channel has weakened after the recent real estate market correction. These findings suggest that further strengthening social safety nets, continuing Hukou reforms, and policies that promote a more efficient transition for the housing market can help reduce household savings and boost private consumption, thus facilitating China’s economic rebalancing.