Despite significant progress in recent decades, labor markets across the world remain divided along gender lines. Female labor force participation has remained lower than male participation, gender wage gaps are high, and women are overrepresented in the informal sector and among the poor. In many countries, legal restrictions persist which constrain women from developing their full economic potential. While equality between men and women is in itself an important development goal, women's economic participation is also a part of the growth and stability equation. In rapidly aging economies, higher female labor force participation can boost growth by mitigating the impact of a shrinking workforce. Better opportunities for women can also contribute to broader economic development in developing economies, for instance through higher levels of school enrollment for girls.
In a world of frequent shocks, central bank communications should anchor expectations by explaining how policy responds to changing conditions, rather than committing to a fixed path
Many G20 economies face constraints from excessive labor, product-market, or consumer regulations, an IMF survey shows
Authors probe complex issues to shed light on global economic challenges
After restoring stability, Argentina needs to turn hard-won gains into lasting prosperity
Sustained rebalancing requires policy action in both surplus and deficit countries
Stronger oversight, better data, and deeper coordination are needed to safeguard faster and more interconnected markets
New Zealand’s economy was finding its footing in early 2026 after a period of prolonged slow growth, before the onset of the war in the Middle East. The New Zealand economy is being subjected to frequent shocks, underscoring the importance of the strong policy framework that underpins macroeconomic stability: a flexible exchange rate regime, strong fiscal buffers, and a credible central bank.
This paper reviews Papua New Guinea’s warranting process for expenditure control, including capital expenditure, and assesses its effectiveness in supporting fiscal discipline and budget execution. The analysis finds that the current system functions primarily as a cash-rationing mechanism in response to budget non-credibility, revenue volatility, financing uncertainty, and recurrent cash shortages. While effective in constraining aggregate expenditure to available cash, the approach has contributed to delayed payments, expenditure arrears, disrupted capital project implementation, and weak incentives for realistic planning and forecasting. The paper finds that responsibility for cash warranting should remain with the Department of Treasury while expenditure management continues to rely on cash rationing, since warranting effectively determines expenditure priorities and serves as a critical expenditure control mechanism. Transferring this function prematurely could fragment budget authority and weaken alignment between fiscal policy objectives and scarce cash allocations. The paper proposes a gradual transition toward quarterly commitment-based warranting, supported by stronger commitment controls, improved cash forecasting, a more credible budget, and clearer institutional responsibilities.
The economy remains resilient, though fiscal buffers have shrunk and structural challenges persist. Growth is projected to moderate in 2026 amid temporary weakness in the mining sector, partly offset by higher copper prices, and with higher oil prices following the war in the Middle East adversely affecting activity. The new administration aims to raise potential growth through deregulation and tax reforms, while consolidating the fiscal position via expenditure cuts.
Special economic zones (SEZs) are widely used to attract investment, promote exports, and support industrialization, yet their performance is uneven and often uncertain. This IMF How To Note reviews global experience with SEZs—their rapid expansion, diverse design, and mixed economic impact—and highlights that many operate as enclaves with limited spillovers and high fiscal costs. While generous tax incentives are common, evidence suggests they are rarely decisive drivers of investment and can lead to significant revenue losses, distortions, and opportunities for profit shifting. The note provides practical guidance for policymakers on how to design and tax SEZs effectively. It emphasizes that taxation should generally remain neutral relative to the domestic economy, with any incentives closely aligned to clear policy objectives, time-bound, and subject to regular evaluation. Priority should be given to well-designed indirect tax regimes, and cost-based investment incentives rather than profit-based tax holidays. Ultimately, the success of SEZs depends far more on fundamentals—such as infrastructure, governance, regulatory efficiency, and integration with the domestic economy—than on tax breaks alone.
The post-GFC era has marked a transition from the relative stability of the “Great Moderation” to a more volatile “Great Turbulence,” characterized by structural transformations, frequent shocks, heightened uncertainty, and constrained policy space. This paper examines whether existing macroeconomic policy frameworks remain fit for purpose in the face of four major global trends—demographic change, climate change, geoeconomic fragmentation, and artificial intelligence. It concludes that credible, resilient, and well-coordinated policy frameworks will be essential to preserving domestic and external stability in an increasingly shock-prone world.
This report discusses the implementation of the Technical Assistance (TA) project delivered by ICD and CDOT to build capacity in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting in the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) that later merged with the Ministry of Finance (MOF) in early 2025. The TA supported the Core Working Group (CWG) in developing and customizing macroeconomic projection tools for Vietnam, operating the tools to produce consistent projections across all sectors, performing policy simulations, and presenting the results to policymakers in policy discussions. This report presents the TA achievements, lessons learned, and recommendations to strengthen and sustain capacity development.
This document describes the technical needs that have given rise to a Fund’s technical assistance (TA) project: ‘Enhancing Macroeconomic Forecasting Framework Capacity in the Ministry of Finance Ethiopia’, as well as its objectives and key work program elements. This project, led by the Regional Technical Assistance Center for East Africa (AFRITAC East) and the Institute for Capacity Development (ICD) of the Fund, aims to upgrade the macroeconomic forecasting toolkit employed in the MoF Ethiopia.
This report discusses the implementation of the Technical Assistance (TA) project delivered by ICD and CDOT to build capacity in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting in the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) that later merged with the Ministry of Finance (MOF) in early 2025. The TA supported the Core Working Group (CWG) in developing and customizing macroeconomic projection tools for Vietnam, operating the tools to produce consistent projections across all sectors, performing policy simulations, and presenting the results to policymakers in policy discussions. This report presents the TA achievements, lessons learned, and recommendations to strengthen and sustain capacity development.
In a world of frequent shocks, central bank communications should anchor expectations by explaining how policy responds to changing conditions, rather than committing to a fixed path
Many G20 economies face constraints from excessive labor, product-market, or consumer regulations, an IMF survey shows
Authors probe complex issues to shed light on global economic challenges
After restoring stability, Argentina needs to turn hard-won gains into lasting prosperity
Sustained rebalancing requires policy action in both surplus and deficit countries
Stronger oversight, better data, and deeper coordination are needed to safeguard faster and more interconnected markets
New Zealand’s economy was finding its footing in early 2026 after a period of prolonged slow growth, before the onset of the war in the Middle East. The New Zealand economy is being subjected to frequent shocks, underscoring the importance of the strong policy framework that underpins macroeconomic stability: a flexible exchange rate regime, strong fiscal buffers, and a credible central bank.
This paper reviews Papua New Guinea’s warranting process for expenditure control, including capital expenditure, and assesses its effectiveness in supporting fiscal discipline and budget execution. The analysis finds that the current system functions primarily as a cash-rationing mechanism in response to budget non-credibility, revenue volatility, financing uncertainty, and recurrent cash shortages. While effective in constraining aggregate expenditure to available cash, the approach has contributed to delayed payments, expenditure arrears, disrupted capital project implementation, and weak incentives for realistic planning and forecasting. The paper finds that responsibility for cash warranting should remain with the Department of Treasury while expenditure management continues to rely on cash rationing, since warranting effectively determines expenditure priorities and serves as a critical expenditure control mechanism. Transferring this function prematurely could fragment budget authority and weaken alignment between fiscal policy objectives and scarce cash allocations. The paper proposes a gradual transition toward quarterly commitment-based warranting, supported by stronger commitment controls, improved cash forecasting, a more credible budget, and clearer institutional responsibilities.
The economy remains resilient, though fiscal buffers have shrunk and structural challenges persist. Growth is projected to moderate in 2026 amid temporary weakness in the mining sector, partly offset by higher copper prices, and with higher oil prices following the war in the Middle East adversely affecting activity. The new administration aims to raise potential growth through deregulation and tax reforms, while consolidating the fiscal position via expenditure cuts.
Special economic zones (SEZs) are widely used to attract investment, promote exports, and support industrialization, yet their performance is uneven and often uncertain. This IMF How To Note reviews global experience with SEZs—their rapid expansion, diverse design, and mixed economic impact—and highlights that many operate as enclaves with limited spillovers and high fiscal costs. While generous tax incentives are common, evidence suggests they are rarely decisive drivers of investment and can lead to significant revenue losses, distortions, and opportunities for profit shifting. The note provides practical guidance for policymakers on how to design and tax SEZs effectively. It emphasizes that taxation should generally remain neutral relative to the domestic economy, with any incentives closely aligned to clear policy objectives, time-bound, and subject to regular evaluation. Priority should be given to well-designed indirect tax regimes, and cost-based investment incentives rather than profit-based tax holidays. Ultimately, the success of SEZs depends far more on fundamentals—such as infrastructure, governance, regulatory efficiency, and integration with the domestic economy—than on tax breaks alone.
The post-GFC era has marked a transition from the relative stability of the “Great Moderation” to a more volatile “Great Turbulence,” characterized by structural transformations, frequent shocks, heightened uncertainty, and constrained policy space. This paper examines whether existing macroeconomic policy frameworks remain fit for purpose in the face of four major global trends—demographic change, climate change, geoeconomic fragmentation, and artificial intelligence. It concludes that credible, resilient, and well-coordinated policy frameworks will be essential to preserving domestic and external stability in an increasingly shock-prone world.
This report discusses the implementation of the Technical Assistance (TA) project delivered by ICD and CDOT to build capacity in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting in the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) that later merged with the Ministry of Finance (MOF) in early 2025. The TA supported the Core Working Group (CWG) in developing and customizing macroeconomic projection tools for Vietnam, operating the tools to produce consistent projections across all sectors, performing policy simulations, and presenting the results to policymakers in policy discussions. This report presents the TA achievements, lessons learned, and recommendations to strengthen and sustain capacity development.
This document describes the technical needs that have given rise to a Fund’s technical assistance (TA) project: ‘Enhancing Macroeconomic Forecasting Framework Capacity in the Ministry of Finance Ethiopia’, as well as its objectives and key work program elements. This project, led by the Regional Technical Assistance Center for East Africa (AFRITAC East) and the Institute for Capacity Development (ICD) of the Fund, aims to upgrade the macroeconomic forecasting toolkit employed in the MoF Ethiopia.
This report discusses the implementation of the Technical Assistance (TA) project delivered by ICD and CDOT to build capacity in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting in the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) that later merged with the Ministry of Finance (MOF) in early 2025. The TA supported the Core Working Group (CWG) in developing and customizing macroeconomic projection tools for Vietnam, operating the tools to produce consistent projections across all sectors, performing policy simulations, and presenting the results to policymakers in policy discussions. This report presents the TA achievements, lessons learned, and recommendations to strengthen and sustain capacity development.
