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Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF)

Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting

This course provides rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting. It emphasizes the analysis of monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks. Participants are provided with the tools necessary to develop or extend the canonical model to fit their own monetary policy framework and selected features of their country's economy. Country case studies are used to reinforce participants' understanding and to help them compare and assess a variety of possible experiences.

 

Topic : Monetary and External Sector Policies

Target Audience

Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making and staff doing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models. 
 

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Qualifications

Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience. Participants are expected to be comfortable using quantitative software such as Matlab/Octave, although specific knowledge of these is not required.
 

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Course Objectives

Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:
Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the shocks this economy may face. 
Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using small semi-structural models.
Use the small semi-structural model to develop consistent medium-term projections for key macro variables, e.g., output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate. 
Identify risks to the baseline forecast and build alternative scenarios that assume certain risks may materialize. 
Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis and forecasting using their own country data when they return home.
 

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Syllabus

This two-week course aims at providing participants a rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary analysis and forecasting with an emphasis on analyzing monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks. Participants are provided with the tools needed to develop and/or extend the model to fit their own monetary policy framework. Country case studies are used to reinforce participants’ understanding and to help them compare, contrast, and assess various experiences.
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Upcoming Offering

Start dateEnd dateLocationDelivery MethodSession No.Primary & (Interpretation) languageApply
December 8, 2025December 19, 2025Singapore, SingaporeBlended TrainingST 25.33EnglishDeadline passed
March 9, 2026March 20, 2026Shenzhen, ChinaIn-person TrainingCT 26.02EnglishApply online by January 4, 2026
November 2, 2026November 13, 2026Vienna, AustriaBlended TrainingJV 26.35EnglishApply online by July 26, 2026
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