Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF)
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Bibliographic details
- Published: July 22, 2025
Upcoming offerings
| Start date | End date | Location | Delivery Method | Session No. | Primary & (Interpretation) language | Apply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 2, 2026 | November 13, 2026 | Vienna, Austria | [Blended Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods) | JV 26.35 | English | Deadline passed |
| November 1, 2027 | November 12, 2027 | Vienna, Austria | [Blended Training](https://www.imf.org/en/capacity-development/training/icdtc/delivery-methods) | JV 27.34 | English | Apply online by July 25, 2027 |
Overview
- The course provides rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting.
- Emphasis on analyzing monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks.
- Participants receive tools to develop or extend the canonical model to fit their own monetary policy framework and selected features of their country's economy.
- Country case studies are used to reinforce understanding and to compare and assess a variety of possible experiences.
- Topic: Monetary and External Sector Policies
- Duration: two-week course.
Target audience and qualifications
- Target audience:
- Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making.
- Staff doing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models.
- Qualifications:
- Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience.
- Participants are expected to be comfortable using quantitative software such as Matlab/Octave, although specific knowledge of these is not required.
Course objectives
- Upon completion, participants should be able to:
- Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the shocks this economy may face.
- Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using small semi-structural models.
- Use the small semi-structural model to develop consistent medium-term projections for key macro variables, e.g., output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.
- Identify risks to the baseline forecast and build alternative scenarios that assume certain risks may materialize.
- Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis and forecasting using their own country data when they return home.
Syllabus and course structure
- The two-week course aims at providing rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary analysis and forecasting.
- Emphasis on analyzing monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks.
- Tools provided to develop and/or extend the model to fit participants' own monetary policy framework.
- Country case studies used to reinforce participants’ understanding and to help them compare, contrast, and assess various experiences.
- Course structure: Course Structure and Standard Syllabus (as stated).
Skills, tools, and practical outcomes
- Technical focus:
- Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) modeling.
- Small semi-structural models for policy analysis and forecasting.
- Software:
- Familiarity with Matlab/Octave expected (specific software expertise not required).
- Practical outcomes for participants:
- Ability to develop consistent medium-term projections for output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.
- Ability to build alternative scenarios and assess risks to a baseline forecast.
- Foundation to start building a country-specific model using domestic data.