Serkan Arslanalp

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Serkan Arslanalp

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Serkan Arslanalp

Biography

Serkan Arslanalp has worked in several departments of the Fund (OMD, STA, APD, MCM, FAD, and AFR) on a range of diverse countries (LIC/fragile states, transition, EMs, AEs), policy areas and issues, including: strategy, bilateral, regional, and global surveillance; Fund lending operations; standards; and capacity development. His research work includes pioneering work on the investor base of sovereign debt and use of big data tools. With his colleague Takahiro Tsuda, he maintains a widely-used database on the global investor base for sovereign debt, publicly available online at the IMF. Work in the area of leading and supervision has involved mission leadership on a range of countries in Asia and Pacific and the Middle East and complex and cross-departmental work to assist over 40 countries advance on IMF data standards over the last two years. His research has been published in leading journals, including the IMF Economic Review, Japan and the World Economy, Journal of Economic Perspectives, and the Journal of Finance. Mr. Arslanalp holds an undergraduate degree in Economics and Computer Science from MIT and a PhD in Economics from Stanford University.

Profile

Education

• Stanford University, Ph.D. in Economics, 2004

• MIT, M.S. in Computer Science and Electrical Engineering, 1999

• MIT, B.S. in Economics, 1998

• MIT, B.S. in Computer Science and Electrical Engineering, 1998

Previous Experience

• IMF, Office of Managing Director, 2022-

• IMF, Statistics Department, 2017-22

• IMF, Asia and Pacific Department, 2015-17

• IMF, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, 2010-15

• IMF, Fiscal Affairs Department, 2006-09

• IMF, Economist Program, Fiscal Affairs Department, 2005-06

• IMF, Economist Program, African Department, 2004-05

• Stanford University, Teaching Assistant, 2000-04

• JP Morgan Chase Bank, Istanbul, Summer Intern, 1999

• MIT, Teaching Assistant, 1998-99

• Froot, Dornbusch and O'Connell (FDO) Partners LLC, Boston, 1997-98

• IBM T. J. Watson Research Center, New York, Summer Intern 1996-98

Country work or Mission Assignment

• Bangladesh, Belarus, China, Japan, Jordan, Mongolia, Namibia, Oman, Pacific Island Countries, Rwanda, Sudan, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United States, Uruguay, Vietnam, Yemen

Teaching

• Lecturer, Istanbul School of Central Banking (ISCB), May 2015

• Lecturer, IMF-Singapore Regional Training Institute (STI), May 2012

• Teaching Assistant, Stanford University, 2000-04

• Teaching Assistant, MIT, 1998-99

Field of Expertise

• Monetary Policy

• International Finance

• International Trade

• Macro-Financial Issues

• Banking

• Public Finance

• Open Economy Macroeconomics

IMF Occasional Papers, Pamphlets, and Special Issues Papers

• IMF Policy Paper: Guidance Note for the Use of Third-Party Indicators in Fund Reports, Sep. 2018

• IMF Policy Paper: Overarching Strategy on Data and Statistics at the Fund in the Digital Age, Mar. 2018

• IMF Policy Paper: Use of Third-Party Indicators in Fund Reports, Nov. 2017

• IMF Policy Paper: Managing Sovereign Debt and Debt Markets through a Crisis - Practical Insights and Policy Lessons, Apr. 2011

IMF Survey Articles

• Reading the Sea Leaves: What Do Ship Movements Tell Us About International Trade--A Big Data Story, IMF Research Perspectives No. 21/2, December 2019

• Sovereign Debt: How to Track Who Is Buying and Selling It?, IMF Research Bulletin No. 14/1, March 2013

IMF Direct Blog Posts

• Dollar Dominance and the Rise of Nontraditional Reserve Currencies, June 1, 2022

• Brave New World: Tracking Trade from Space, November 2, 2021

• US Dollar Share of Global Foreign Exchange Reserves Drops to 25-Year Low, May 5, 2021

• Who Wins and Who Loses As China Rebalances?, May 12 2016

• Heat Wave: Rising Financial Risks in the United States, October 10, 2014

• U.S. Interest Rates: The Potential Shock Heard Around the World, May 21, 2014

• The Trillion Dollar Question: Who Owns Emerging Market Government Debt, March 5, 2014

• The Ties That Bond Us: What Demand For Government Debt Can Tell Us About the Risks Ahead, January 17, 2013

Books

• “Guide to Sovereign Debt Definitions and Composition” (2019) with W. Bergthaler, P. Stokoe and A. Tieman in "Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners," edited by Ali Abbas, Alex Pienkowski, and Kenneth Rogoff, Oxford University Press (December 2019)

• “Will Asia Grow Old Before Getting Rich?” (2018) with several co-authors in "Sustaining Economic Growth in Asia," edited by Jérémie Cohen-Setton, Thomas Helbling, Adam Posen and Changyong Rhee, Peterson Institute for International Economics (December 2018)

• “The Opportunities and Risks of Abenomics in the Financial Sector” (2015) with R. Lam and M. Nabar in "Can Abenomics Succeed? Overcoming the Legacy of the Lost Decades," edited by Dennis Botman, Stephan Danninger, and Jerald Schiff, International Monetary Fund (April 2015)

• “Helping the Poor to Help Themselves: Debt Relief or Aid?” (2006) with Peter B. Henry in "Sovereign Debt at the Crossroads: Challenges and Proposals for Resolving the Third World Debt Crisis," edited by Chris Jochnick and Fraser Preston, pages: 174-193, Oxford University Press

IMF Publications

IMF Books and Working Papers

• Nowcasting Country-Level Trade Estimates Using IMF PortWatch, Working Paper No. 2026/099 , May 22, 2026

• Nowcasting Global Trade from Space, Working Paper No. 2025/093 , May 16, 2025

• Gold as International Reserves: A Barbarous Relic No More?, Working Paper No. 2023/014 , January 27, 2023

• Sovereign Debt Repatriation During Crises, Working Paper No. 2022/077 , May 6, 2022

• The Stealth Erosion of Dollar Dominance: Active Diversifiers and the Rise of Nontraditional Reserve Currencies, Working Paper No. 2022/058 , March 24, 2022

• Tracking Trade from Space: An Application to Pacific Island Countries, Working Paper No. 2021/225 , August 20, 2021

• Benchmark-Driven Investments in Emerging Market Bond Markets: Taking Stock, Working Paper No. 2020/192 , September 25, 2020

• Big Data on Vessel Traffic: Nowcasting Trade Flows in Real Time, Working Paper No. 2019/275 , December 13, 2019

• Demographics and Interest Rates in Asia, Working Paper No. 2018/172 , July 27, 2018

• Resolving China’s Corporate Debt Problem, Working Paper No. 2016/203 , October 14, 2016

• China’s Growing Influence on Asian Financial Markets, Working Paper No. 2016/173 , August 12, 2016

• Emerging Market Portfolio Flows: The Role of Benchmark-Driven Investors, Working Paper No. 2015/263 , December 17, 2015

• Contingent Liabilities from Banks: How to Track Them?, Working Paper No. 2015/255 , December 9, 2015

• Portfolio Rebalancing in Japan: Constraints and Implications for Quantitative Easing, Working Paper No. 2015/186 , August 3, 2015

• Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt, Working Paper No. 2014/039 , March 5, 2014

• Foreign Investor Flows and Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies, Working Paper No. 2014/027 , February 11, 2014

• Outlook for Interest Rates and Japanese Banks’ Risk Exposures under Abenomics, Working Paper No. 2013/213 , October 18, 2013

• Tracking Global Demand for Advanced Economy Sovereign Debt, Working Paper No. 2012/284 , December 3, 2012

• Public Capital and Growth, Working Paper No. 2010/175 , July 1, 2010

IMF Country Reports

• Vietnam: Press Release on the Implementation of IMF's Enhanced General Data Dissemination System, Jul. 2019

• Oman: Press Release on the Implementation of IMF's Enhanced General Data Dissemination System, Aug. 2018

• United Arab Emirates: Press Release on the Implementation of IMF's Enhanced General Data Dissemination System, Jun. 2018

• Federated States of Micronesia: 2017 Article IV Staff Report, IMF Country Report No. 17/280, Sep. 2017

• Federated States of Micronesia: 2016 Staff Visit Concluding Statement, Nov. 2016

• Marshall Islands: 2016 Article IV Staff Report, IMF Country Report No. 16/260, Jul. 2016

• China: 2015 Article IV Staff Report, Box 3, IMF Country Report No. 15/234, Aug. 2015

• Japan: 2014 Article IV Staff Report, IMF Country Report No. 14/236, July 2014

• Japan: 2013 Article IV Staff Report, IMF Country Report No. 13/253, August 2013

• Belgium: 2013 Financial Stability Assessment, Box 2, IMF Country Report No. 13/124, May 2013

• Japan: 2012 Financial Stability Assessment, IMF Country Report No. 12/210, August 2012

• Japan: 2012 Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note on Financial System Spillovers - An Analysis of Potential Channels, IMF Country Report No. 12/263, August 2012

• Spain: 2012 Financial Stability Assessment, Box 3, IMF Country Report No. 12/137, June 2012

• Jordan: 2010 Article IV Staff Report, IMF Country Report No. 10/297, September 2010

• Ukraine: Second Review under the Stand-By Arrangement, Country Report No. 09/270, September 2009

• Ukraine: First Review under the Stand-By Arrangement, Country Report No. 09/173, June 2009

• Ukraine: Request for Stand-by Arrangement, IMF Country Report No. 08/384, December 2008

• Bangladesh: 2008 Article IV Staff Report, IMF Country Report No. 08/334, October 2008

• Belarus: 2008 Article IV Consultation, September 2008

• Bangladesh: Request for Emergency Assistance—Staff Report, IMF Country Report No. 08/138, April 2008

• Uruguay: Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2005 Stand-By Arrangement, IMF Country Report No. 08/47, January 2008

• Sudan: Staff Report for the 2007 Article IV Consultation and Staff-Monitored Program, IMF Country Report No. 07/343, Oct. 2007

• Sudan: Midyear Review Under the 2006 Staff-Monitored Program, Nov. 2006

• Belarus: 2006 Article IV Staff Report, IMF Country Report No. 06/314, Aug. 2006

• Yemen: Staff Report for the 2006 Article IV Consultation, May 2006

• Rwanda : Joint Staff Advisory Note of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper Annual Progress Report, IMF Country Report No. 05/174, Jun. 2005

• Rwanda : Enhanced Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries-Completion Point Document, IMF Country Report No. 05/173, Jun. 2005

• Rwanda: Fourth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and for Extension of the Arrangement, IMF Country Report No. 05/171, May 2005

F&D articles

• “Investing in Growth” (2011) with Fabian Bornhorst and Sanjeev Gupta, Finance & Development, March 2011, International Monetary Fund

Other Published Materials

• “Asia: At Risk of Growing Old before Becoming Rich?” (2017) with Jaewoo Lee as lead author, IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, Chapter 2, World Economic and Financial Surveys, April 2017

• “Navigating the Transition: Trade and Financial Spillovers from China” (2016) with Jaewoo Lee as lead author, IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, Chapter 2, World Economic and Financial Surveys, May 2016

• “External Portfolio Rebalancing under Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area and Japan” with Ali Al-Eyd, Annex 1.2., Chapter 1, Global Financial Stability Report, April 2015

• “Is the Japanese Financial System Rebalancing, and What Are the Financial Stability Implications?” Box 1.2, Chapter 1, Global Financial Stability Report, April 2014

• “Constructing Term Premium Estimates for Major Advanced Economies” with Yingyuan Chen, Annex 1.1, Chapter 1, Global Financial Stability Report, April 2014

• “Changes in Cross-Border Bank Funding Sources” with Takahiro Tsuda, Box. 3.3, Chapter 3, Global Financial Stability Report, October 2013

• “Japan: How Safe a Safe Haven?” with Chris Walker, pg. 52-55, Chapter 1, Global Financial Stability Report, October 2012

• “Factors Determining International Asset Allocation” with Ruchir Agarwal and Tao Sun, pg. 65-71, Chapter 2, Global Financial Stability Report, September 2011

Non-IMF Publications

Publications in Journals (Referred)

• Demographics and Interest Rates in Asia (2019) with Jaewoo Lee and Umang Rawat, Japan and the World Economy, Volume 50, Pages 14-24, June 2019

• “Foreign Investor Flows and Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies” (2016) with Tigran Poghosyan, Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, vol. 2, issue 6, 45-67, June 2016

• Banking Sector Contingent Liabilities and Sovereign Risk (2014) with Yin Liao, Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 316-330, December 2014

• “Tracking Global Demand for Advanced Economy Sovereign Debt” (2014) with Takahiro Tsuda, IMF Economic Review, volume 62, issue 3, 2014

• “Policy Watch: Debt Relief” (2006) with Peter B. Henry, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20(1), 207-220

• “Is Debt Relief Efficient?” (2005) with Peter B. Henry, Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 1017-1051, April 2005

Other Published Materials

• Resolving China’s Corporate Debt Problem (2017) with co-authors, VoxChina, September 2017

• China’s Growing Influence on Asian Financial Markets (2017) Econbrowser Guest Contribution, January 2017

• What Lies Underneath Emerging Market Flows? (2016) with Takahiro Tsuda in Bonds & Loans, September 2016

• Trends and Prospects for Private-sector Deleveraging in Advanced Economies (2015) with Reinout De Bock and Matthew Jones, VOX, CEPR Policy Blog, June 2015

• Helping the Poor to Help Themselves: Debt Relief or Aid (2004) with Peter B. Henry, NBER Working Papers 10230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Jan. 2004

• Is Debt Relief Efficient? (2003) with Peter B. Henry, Brookings Research Paper, Brookings Institution, Nov. 2003

• Debt Relief: What Do the Markets Think? (2002) with Peter B. Henry, NBER Working Papers 9369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Dec. 2002

Content in this bundle

• Ch2 (PDF)
• C3 (PDF)
• C1 (PDF)
• Index (PDF)
• Index (PDF)
• Japan: 2014 Article IV Staff Report, IMF Country Report No. 14/236, July 2014 (PDF)