Despite significant progress in recent decades, labor markets across the world remain divided along gender lines. Female labor force participation has remained lower than male participation, gender wage gaps are high, and women are overrepresented in the informal sector and among the poor. In many countries, legal restrictions persist which constrain women from developing their full economic potential. While equality between men and women is in itself an important development goal, women's economic participation is also a part of the growth and stability equation. In rapidly aging economies, higher female labor force participation can boost growth by mitigating the impact of a shrinking workforce. Better opportunities for women can also contribute to broader economic development in developing economies, for instance through higher levels of school enrollment for girls.
The right choice between subsidies, vouchers, or in-kind distribution can help countries save precious resources
The question for policymakers is how to seize new opportunities to renew Asia’s economic growth
In a world of frequent shocks, central bank communications should anchor expectations by explaining how policy responds to changing conditions, rather than committing to a fixed path
Many G20 economies face constraints from excessive labor, product-market, or consumer regulations, an IMF survey shows
Authors probe complex issues to shed light on global economic challenges
After restoring stability, Argentina needs to turn hard-won gains into lasting prosperity
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Exchange rate movements in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) can reflect shifts in macroeconomic fundamentals or, alternatively, financial shocks that impair currency market functioning. Distinguishing between these fundamental and non‑fundamental drivers is central to the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) and to assessing when foreign exchange (FX) intervention may be appropriate to smooth currency risk premia. This Staff Discussion Note develops an empirical framework to distinguish between these two types of drivers using deviations from uncovered interest parity (UIP), which capture currency risk premia and limits to arbitrage. Using 15 years of monthly data from 25 EMDEs, the paper documents stylized facts on UIP premia and introduces a toolkit that combines macro‑financial data, model‑based sign restrictions, and narrative evidence to identify episodes in which exchange rate movements are driven by financial shocks rather than fundamentals. Applications to Chile and Brazil show that such financial shock driven episodes account for around one third of UIP premium fluctuations—but are associated with sizable contractions in economic activity. The framework can be applied both retrospectively and in real time, providing policymakers with a structured approach to interpreting exchange rate pressures.
This Note provides an overview of food assistance expenditure policies, quantifying and categorizing them, discussing their advantages and drawbacks, and outlining different options for targeting food-spending modalities. Generalized food price subsidies can be effective for quickly addressing price shocks, but they also tend to distort markets, are costly, and often disproportionately benefit better-off households. While food voucher programs can be more efficient in well-functioning markets, they are costly to administer and tend to be less useful in areas with poor market infrastructure. Direct in-kind food transfers can be critical during acute hunger crises but tend to be expensive and disrupt local markets if used over the long run. Design elements of food assistance programs matter. Understanding the drivers of food insecurity is key for better tailored interventions, whether addressing chronic food insecurity or responding to severe crises. Political challenges often prevail in reforming food assistance programs, particularly price subsidies, which are often seen by the public as a government obligation and can be contentious to scale down.
This report presents estimates of the Corporate Income Tax (CIT) gap for Poland for the period 2019–2023. The CIT gap is based on a bottom-up approach using operational audits. The average yearly CIT gap in Poland is estimated at 20.3 percent of potential CIT liability.
This report outlines the progress and findings of a technical assistance project initiated by the Department of Finance (DOF) of the Philippines to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), aimed at further strengthening the DOF’s macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis capabilities. The project commenced in 2023, focusing on developing a macroeconomic forecasting tool based on the Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model (CAEM) by the Institute for Capacity Development of the IMF. DOF staff have made good progress in implementing CAEM for macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis since the beginning of the project.
This report outlines the progress and findings of a technical assistance project initiated by the Department of Finance (DOF) of the Philippines to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), aimed at further strengthening the DOF’s macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis capabilities. The project commenced in 2023, focusing on developing a macroeconomic forecasting tool based on the Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model (CAEM) by the Institute for Capacity Development of the IMF. DOF staff have made good progress in implementing CAEM for macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis since the beginning of the project.
The Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) supported the Government of Mauritius through the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MoFED) to undertake a diagnostic review of the existing legal framework for Public Financial Management (PFM) and supporting fiscal institutions with a view to advise on design options and implementation requirements for fiscal responsibility legislation (FRL). The technical assistance report proposes a comprehensive FRL framework that incorporates fiscal responsibility principles, numerical and procedural fiscal rules, mandates the development of a detailed medium-term fiscal framework (MTFF), and establishes robust transparency requirements and corrective mechanisms to facilitate effective implementation. Reinforcement or reform of several priority fiscal institutions, such as macro-fiscal forecasting, MTFF, budget preparation process, fiscal risk management and fiscal reporting is required to support effective implementation of the FRL.
This technical assistance report presents the findings and recommendations of a diagnostic review conducted by the Fiscal Affairs Department of Mauritius’ public financial management legal framework and supporting fiscal institutions to inform the development of fiscal responsibility legislation (FRL). The report outlines design options and implementation requirements for the FRL for consideration by the Government of Mauritius. The existing public financial management framework has been ineffective in enforcing fiscal discipline and accountability. The debt limit has been repeatedly breached since 2008, fiscal planning has been undermined by overly optimistic forecasts, the budget process lacks an early strategic top-down phase with expenditure ceilings, and in-year fiscal reporting is limited. The report proposes a comprehensive FRL framework that incorporates fiscal responsibility principles, numerical and procedural fiscal rules, a detailed medium-term fiscal framework, and robust transparency and corrective mechanisms to support effective implementation. It also highlights the need to strengthen or reform key fiscal institutions, including macro-fiscal forecasting, the medium-term fiscal framework, the budget preparation process, fiscal risk management, and fiscal reporting, to ensure the successful implementation of the FRL.
The paper analyzes how fiscal institutions in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) can improve fiscal credibility, debt management, and public investment outcomes. It finds that while fiscal rules and medium-term fiscal frameworks (MTFFs) are widespread, their effectiveness depends on credibility, consistent implementation, and integration into budgeting and accountability systems. Weaknesses—such as frequent target revisions or unclear escape clauses—undermine their impact. Empirical evidence shows that stronger fiscal frameworks lead to more accurate forecasts, fewer debt shocks, and better protection of growth-enhancing spending during fiscal tightening. Market perceptions also depend more on credibility and transparency than on the mere existence of fiscal rules. The paper concludes that future reforms should focus on making existing frameworks more effective, integrated, and operational in practice.
Emigration continues to shape the demographic and economic landscapes of Pacific Island Countries (PICs), though patterns and impacts vary widely across the region. This paper examines emigration trends in PICs and their implications on human capital and growth. We find that traditional emigration, which is largely characterized by a permanent relocation of young, highly skilled individuals—primarily to Australia and New Zealand—results in a brain drain in home countries. Moreover, many of these emigrants work in low-skilled jobs abroad, indicating significant skill mismatches and limited skill acquisition. More recent emigration has been driven by the expansion of labor mobility arrangements (LMAs) in Australia and New Zealand, involving low-skilled young workers who typically return home. These LMAs offer opportunities to mitigate brain drain, reduce youth unemployment, and support near-term economic growth through remittances. At the same time, children of LMA workers are more likely to drop out of school, thus undermining human capital accumulation and limiting long-term output gains. From a policy perspective, the results suggest that temporary labor mobility can be a helpful development instrument, while complementary policies are needed to safeguard children’s education, promote the productive use of remittances, and strengthen skills development and job creation at home.
The right choice between subsidies, vouchers, or in-kind distribution can help countries save precious resources
The question for policymakers is how to seize new opportunities to renew Asia’s economic growth
In a world of frequent shocks, central bank communications should anchor expectations by explaining how policy responds to changing conditions, rather than committing to a fixed path
Many G20 economies face constraints from excessive labor, product-market, or consumer regulations, an IMF survey shows
Authors probe complex issues to shed light on global economic challenges
After restoring stability, Argentina needs to turn hard-won gains into lasting prosperity
Exchange rate movements in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) can reflect shifts in macroeconomic fundamentals or, alternatively, financial shocks that impair currency market functioning. Distinguishing between these fundamental and non‑fundamental drivers is central to the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) and to assessing when foreign exchange (FX) intervention may be appropriate to smooth currency risk premia. This Staff Discussion Note develops an empirical framework to distinguish between these two types of drivers using deviations from uncovered interest parity (UIP), which capture currency risk premia and limits to arbitrage. Using 15 years of monthly data from 25 EMDEs, the paper documents stylized facts on UIP premia and introduces a toolkit that combines macro‑financial data, model‑based sign restrictions, and narrative evidence to identify episodes in which exchange rate movements are driven by financial shocks rather than fundamentals. Applications to Chile and Brazil show that such financial shock driven episodes account for around one third of UIP premium fluctuations—but are associated with sizable contractions in economic activity. The framework can be applied both retrospectively and in real time, providing policymakers with a structured approach to interpreting exchange rate pressures.
This Note provides an overview of food assistance expenditure policies, quantifying and categorizing them, discussing their advantages and drawbacks, and outlining different options for targeting food-spending modalities. Generalized food price subsidies can be effective for quickly addressing price shocks, but they also tend to distort markets, are costly, and often disproportionately benefit better-off households. While food voucher programs can be more efficient in well-functioning markets, they are costly to administer and tend to be less useful in areas with poor market infrastructure. Direct in-kind food transfers can be critical during acute hunger crises but tend to be expensive and disrupt local markets if used over the long run. Design elements of food assistance programs matter. Understanding the drivers of food insecurity is key for better tailored interventions, whether addressing chronic food insecurity or responding to severe crises. Political challenges often prevail in reforming food assistance programs, particularly price subsidies, which are often seen by the public as a government obligation and can be contentious to scale down.
This report presents estimates of the Corporate Income Tax (CIT) gap for Poland for the period 2019–2023. The CIT gap is based on a bottom-up approach using operational audits. The average yearly CIT gap in Poland is estimated at 20.3 percent of potential CIT liability.
This report outlines the progress and findings of a technical assistance project initiated by the Department of Finance (DOF) of the Philippines to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), aimed at further strengthening the DOF’s macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis capabilities. The project commenced in 2023, focusing on developing a macroeconomic forecasting tool based on the Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model (CAEM) by the Institute for Capacity Development of the IMF. DOF staff have made good progress in implementing CAEM for macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis since the beginning of the project.
This report outlines the progress and findings of a technical assistance project initiated by the Department of Finance (DOF) of the Philippines to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), aimed at further strengthening the DOF’s macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis capabilities. The project commenced in 2023, focusing on developing a macroeconomic forecasting tool based on the Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model (CAEM) by the Institute for Capacity Development of the IMF. DOF staff have made good progress in implementing CAEM for macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis since the beginning of the project.
The Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) supported the Government of Mauritius through the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MoFED) to undertake a diagnostic review of the existing legal framework for Public Financial Management (PFM) and supporting fiscal institutions with a view to advise on design options and implementation requirements for fiscal responsibility legislation (FRL). The technical assistance report proposes a comprehensive FRL framework that incorporates fiscal responsibility principles, numerical and procedural fiscal rules, mandates the development of a detailed medium-term fiscal framework (MTFF), and establishes robust transparency requirements and corrective mechanisms to facilitate effective implementation. Reinforcement or reform of several priority fiscal institutions, such as macro-fiscal forecasting, MTFF, budget preparation process, fiscal risk management and fiscal reporting is required to support effective implementation of the FRL.
This technical assistance report presents the findings and recommendations of a diagnostic review conducted by the Fiscal Affairs Department of Mauritius’ public financial management legal framework and supporting fiscal institutions to inform the development of fiscal responsibility legislation (FRL). The report outlines design options and implementation requirements for the FRL for consideration by the Government of Mauritius. The existing public financial management framework has been ineffective in enforcing fiscal discipline and accountability. The debt limit has been repeatedly breached since 2008, fiscal planning has been undermined by overly optimistic forecasts, the budget process lacks an early strategic top-down phase with expenditure ceilings, and in-year fiscal reporting is limited. The report proposes a comprehensive FRL framework that incorporates fiscal responsibility principles, numerical and procedural fiscal rules, a detailed medium-term fiscal framework, and robust transparency and corrective mechanisms to support effective implementation. It also highlights the need to strengthen or reform key fiscal institutions, including macro-fiscal forecasting, the medium-term fiscal framework, the budget preparation process, fiscal risk management, and fiscal reporting, to ensure the successful implementation of the FRL.
The paper analyzes how fiscal institutions in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) can improve fiscal credibility, debt management, and public investment outcomes. It finds that while fiscal rules and medium-term fiscal frameworks (MTFFs) are widespread, their effectiveness depends on credibility, consistent implementation, and integration into budgeting and accountability systems. Weaknesses—such as frequent target revisions or unclear escape clauses—undermine their impact. Empirical evidence shows that stronger fiscal frameworks lead to more accurate forecasts, fewer debt shocks, and better protection of growth-enhancing spending during fiscal tightening. Market perceptions also depend more on credibility and transparency than on the mere existence of fiscal rules. The paper concludes that future reforms should focus on making existing frameworks more effective, integrated, and operational in practice.
Emigration continues to shape the demographic and economic landscapes of Pacific Island Countries (PICs), though patterns and impacts vary widely across the region. This paper examines emigration trends in PICs and their implications on human capital and growth. We find that traditional emigration, which is largely characterized by a permanent relocation of young, highly skilled individuals—primarily to Australia and New Zealand—results in a brain drain in home countries. Moreover, many of these emigrants work in low-skilled jobs abroad, indicating significant skill mismatches and limited skill acquisition. More recent emigration has been driven by the expansion of labor mobility arrangements (LMAs) in Australia and New Zealand, involving low-skilled young workers who typically return home. These LMAs offer opportunities to mitigate brain drain, reduce youth unemployment, and support near-term economic growth through remittances. At the same time, children of LMA workers are more likely to drop out of school, thus undermining human capital accumulation and limiting long-term output gains. From a policy perspective, the results suggest that temporary labor mobility can be a helpful development instrument, while complementary policies are needed to safeguard children’s education, promote the productive use of remittances, and strengthen skills development and job creation at home.
