Gender

In August 2024, the IMF's CCAMTAC conducted a scoping mission at the request of the National Bank of Kazakhstan to enhance the forecasting capabilities of the Monetary Analysis Division. The mission evaluated the Division's current resources, tools, and data management practices, identifying strengths such as experienced senior staff and adequate IT resources, while noting areas for improvement, including the need for additional training and more consistent forecasting methods. The project aims to develop a robust near-term forecasting system, integrating it into the National Bank's broader policy analysis framework, with execution planned for FY2026. Key risks include staff turnover and resource constraints, with mitigation strategies proposed to ensure success.

This paper examines the uptake of AI in securities markets and recent approaches to its regulation and supervision, complementing work by IMF and standard setters’ initiatives. It highlights the adoption of AI across financial services, the growing use of GenAI, and the associated risks, including data, performance, new cybersecurity threats, and broader financial stability risks. While AI offers benefits, its adoption warrants caution given the potential for material risks that could undermine financial sector’s reputation and soundness. The paper highlights how authorities are responding, providing a stocktake of regulatory and supervisory developments. While the paper compares advanced economies (AEs) and emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), it highlights the significant heterogeneity within EMDEs, in terms of technology adoption and capacity. Finally, the paper summarizes key take-aways and identifies practices that authorities could consider adopting as part of their supervisory frameworks.

This report estimates Sweden’s Corporate Income Tax (CIT) gap for 2016–2023. Using a bottom-up approach based on operational audits and comparisons with random audits. The average CIT gap is about 2.2% of potential CIT.

The Republic of Palau faces significant climate change challenges that threaten its environment, economy, and fiscal sustainability. This technical assistance report assesses Palau’s public financial management (PFM) and public investment management (PIM) systems through the lens of climate sensitivity, using the IMF’s Green Public Financial Management Framework. While Palau has initiated several green PFM reforms—such as the Climate Resilience Fund—critical gaps remain in integrating climate considerations into fiscal strategy, budget processes, investment planning, and asset management. The report recommends a selective, capacity-sensitive approach to mainstream climate change into Palau’s PFM cycle, emphasizing medium-term fiscal strategy, fiscal risk management, budget preparation, climate tagging, and climate-aware asset management. Strengthening institutional coordination and capacity is essential for successful implementation of these reforms.

Climate-related risks are macro-critical considerations for Liberia. This Climate Policy Diagnostic identifies policy reforms that reduce balance of payment risks, boost fiscal resilience, and generate positive climate outcomes. A comprehensive reform agenda is needed to promote water and food security, and a robust package of fiscal policies is key to accelerating energy access and transition. While efficient disaster risk management and financing will save lives and build economic resilience, sustainable forestry and land-use are vital to livelihoods and can be supported by good fiscal policies. Stronger climate governance would help streamline climate policy implementation and reduce costs toward building resilience. In addition, strategic mobilization of climate finance and leveraging the private sector are crucial to closing the financing gap.

[Please note this report is only available in French] Repeat TADAT assessment in 2025 indicated that Morocco’s General Directorate of Taxes has made significant strides in modernizing its tax administration since the first TADAT assessment in 2018, notably through the enhanced compliance risk management, improved taxpayer services and audit. However, several challenges remain and will guide future reforms.

This technical note presents the Reverse Method, a novel indirect approach for estimating the global value-added tax (VAT) compliance gap. The Reverse Method leverages public datasets and a calibrated econometric model to produce scalable, comparable, and indicative VAT gap estimates for over 100 countries and multiple years. It builds on the IMF’s RA-GAP (Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program) framework, using C-efficiency, tax expenditure data, and national accounts to approximate the compliance gap as a residual. The methodology enables broad cross-country analysis, supports tax gap benchmarking, and provides indicative estimates even where detailed data is scarce. While not a substitute for country-specific RA-GAP assessments, the Reverse Method offers a practical tool for monitoring global VAT compliance trends, informing tax gap analysis, and facilitating international comparisons. Its results highlight differences by income level and region, and the approach is designed for continuous improvement as more data becomes available.

This document presents Serbia’s Second Review under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), and Request for Modification of Quantitative Targets. Serbia’s strong track record of prudent macroeconomic management has built buffers that are helping the authorities navigate a challenging environment marked by ongoing protests, energy security risks following U.S. sanctions on the macro-critical oil company NIS, and global trade tensions. The PCI provides an important anchor for policy credibility and private sector confidence by ensuring fiscal prudence, strengthening energy sector resilience, and supporting authorities’ commitment to transparent, accountable, and rules-based government. Under the PCI, fiscal deficits continue to be kept within the 3.0 percent of GDP ceiling. Monetary policy remains appropriately restrictive, including looking through temporary price fluctuations from recent price and margin controls. Fiscal transparency and accountability are being strengthened through continued reforms in public financial and investment management while energy sector reforms to enhance energy security continue.

São Tomé and Príncipe (STP) is confronting a challenging macroeconomic environment marked by unfavorable demographic trends, an energy crisis, and delays in the energy transition. As a result, GDP growth forecasts have been revised downward, and an additional balance of payments gap is projected. Against this backdrop, the authorities are requesting a 12-month extension of the 40-month ECF arrangement approved in December 2024, along with an augmentation of SDR 4.44 million (30 percent of quota), bringing total access to 155 percent of quota, combined with a more gradual and less front-loaded path for fiscal adjustment, on the heels of the large cumulative fiscal consolidation since 2022.