House Price Determinants in Selected Countries of the Former Soviet Union

ByVahram Stepanyan, Tigran Poghosyan, Aidyn Bibolov

April 1, 2010

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper analyses the recent boom-bust cycle in the housing markets of selected Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries. The analysis is based on a newly constructed database on house prices in the FSU countries. Our estimations suggest that house price developments can largely be explained by the dynamics of fundamentals, such as GDP, remittances, and external financing. Overall, we find that deviations of house prices from their fundamentals have not been pronounced, suggesting that house price bubbles have not been formed in the FSU countries.

Subject: Balance of payments, Housing, Housing prices, Inflation, National accounts, Prices, Real estate prices, Remittances

Keywords: Baltics, error-correction term, FSU country, GDP, house price development, house price elasticity, House prices, house prices in the FSU country, Housing, housing price development, Housing prices, Inflation, mortgage rate, pooled mean group estimator, price development, Real estate prices, Remittances, the Former Soviet Union, WP

Pages:
15
Volume:
2010
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455200634.001
Issue:
104
Series:
Working Paper No. 2010/104
Stock No:
WPIEA2010104
ISBN:
9781455200634
ISSN:
1018-5941

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