| Preface |
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| Executive Summary |
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| 1. |
Global, U.S., and Canadian Outlook |
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The Global Backdrop—A Recovery Still Led by Emerging Economies |
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United States—Recovery Is Still Policy Driven |
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Canada—Strong Recovery with Elevated Risks |
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Implications for the Latin American and Caribbean Region |
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| 2. |
Latin America and the Caribbean: Recent Developments and Outlook |
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Growth to Normalize from Recent Highs |
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Wide Divergence in the Regional Outlook |
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Diverse Policy Challenges |
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South America—Ensuring a Soft Landing |
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Withdrawing Policy Stimulus Amid Ample Global Liquidity |
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Favorable Terms of Trade Continue to Offset Limited Market Access |
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Mexico and Central America—Recovery Gathers Strength Despite |
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Headwinds from the United States |
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Mexico: Fiscal Consolidation Amid Weak Trading Partner Outlook |
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Central America: Rebuilding Policy Buffers |
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The Caribbean—Turning the Corner Amid Vast Challenges |
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Securing Growth |
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Reducing High Debt Burdens |
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Strengthening the Financial Sector |
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| 3. |
Looking at the Last Credit Cycle to Better Manage the Next One |
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An Overview of the Financial System |
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Learning from the Last Financial Cycle |
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How Big Was the Recent Cycle? |
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Shifts in Funding and Asset Structure |
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Differences in Bank Behavior: Foreign and Public Banks |
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Asset Quality |
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A Complementary Financing Role of Bond Markets |
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Policy Implications for the Ongoing Cycle |
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Using Macroprudential Regulation to Smooth out Financial Cycles |
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Keys to Financial Deepening in a Safe Manner |
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Increasing Crowding in, where Possible |
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Foreign and Public Banks |
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Strengthening Other Financial Markets |
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Final Remarks |
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| 4. |
Macroprudential Tools in Latin America: A Primer |
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Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy—An Ongoing International Debate |
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Recent Country Experiences with Macroprudential Tools |
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Macroprudential Policy Challenges in the Current Latin American Context |
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| 5. |
A Cross-Country Perspective on Growth in the Caribbean: The Role of Tourism and Debt |
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Growth Performance in the Last 40 Years |
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A First Pass: Growth Accounting |
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Does Tourism Help Growth? |
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The Drag from Debt |
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Conclusions |
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Appendix |
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| Western Hemisphere: Main Economic Indicators |
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| Latin America and the Caribbean: Main Fiscal Indicators |
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| References |
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| Boxes |
| 1.1 |
Labor Market Adjustment in the United States |
| 1.2 |
The Financing of U.S. Federal Budget Deficits—and Its Global Implications |
| 1.3 |
Highlights of the 2010 U.S. Financial Regulatory Reform |
| 2.1 |
Latin Americas Resilience to the European Financial Turmoil of 2010 |
| 2.2 |
The Outlook for Commodity Prices and the Role of China |
| 2.3 |
Reserve Accumulation: Building Insurance or Leaning Against Appreciation Winds? |
| 2.4 |
What Is Driving Financial Dedollarization in Latin America? |
| 2.5 |
Domestic Demand Growth under Easy and Tight External Financial Conditions: The Role of Exchange Rate Flexibility |
| 2.6 |
Real Spillovers from Brazil into Neighboring Countries |
| 3.1 |
Structure of Private Sector Credit Market: Role of Foreign Banks |
| 3.2 |
Government Bond Markets in Latin America |
| 3.3 |
Financial Structure and Corporate Performance during the Global Crisis: Microevidence for Latin America |
| 3.4 |
Public Banks as a Countercyclical Tool: Experience in Brazil, Chile, and Costa Rica |
| 4.1 |
Dynamic Provisioning in Latin America |
| 4.2 |
Reserve Requirements as a Macroprudential Tool in Latin America |
| 5.1 |
Haiti's Growth Performance and Challenges |
| 5.2 |
Outlook for Tourism in the CaribbeanIs Cuba a New Competitor? |
| 5.3 |
Debt and Growth |