Stablecoin Shocks
IMF Working Papers, March 6, 2026
Source details
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- Stablecoin Shocks
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Eugenio M Cerutti, Melih Firat, Martina Hengge, Takaaki Sagawa
- Published: March 6, 2026
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229040228.001
Authors and publication
- Eugenio M Cerutti, Melih Firat, Martina Hengge, Takaaki Sagawa
- March 6, 2026
- IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2026/044
- Volume: 2026; Issue: 044; Pages: 40
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229040228.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2026044
- ISBN: 9798229040228
- ISSN: 1018-5941
Research question and methodology
- Objective: Identify the causal effects of stablecoin adoption on U.S. financial markets.
- Measurement strategy:
- Combine a daily narrative dataset of stablecoin-specific news with changes in the combined market capitalization of USDC and USDT to measure high-frequency movements in stablecoin market capitalization.
- Implement heteroskedasticity-based identification within an event-study and SVAR-IV framework.
Key empirical findings
- Asset-market effects of stablecoin demand shocks:
- Trigger persistent declines in short-term Treasury yields.
- Cause a depreciation of the U.S. dollar.
- Produce gradual spillovers into crypto and equity markets.
- Firm-level heterogeneity:
- Payment providers benefit from greater stablecoin adoption.
- Banks—including community and small banks—show no evidence of priced disintermediation risk.
- Conceptual contribution:
- Stablecoin demand is identified as a novel channel of asset-market transmission.
Subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Econometric analysis, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Market capitalization, Stock markets, Treasury bills and bonds, Vector autoregression
- Keywords: Crypto, Europe, Financial Markets, Global, IMF working papers, Market capitalization, Payment Systems, Stablecoin, stablecoin adoption, Stablecoin demand shocks, stablecoin market capitalization, Stablecoin shock, Stock markets, Treasury bills and bonds, Vector autoregression
Publication notes
- Format details available: Download PDF; More Formats on IMF eLibrary; Order a Print Copy; Create Citation
- Example citation format provided on source page (Chicago):
- Eugenio M Cerutti, Melih Firat, Martina Hengge, and Takaaki Sagawa. "Stablecoin Shocks", IMF Working Papers 2026, 044 (2026), accessed 9/9/2026, https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229040228.001
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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